Jake McCarthy Fights the BABIP Monster

What a wild trip it’s been for Jake McCarthy the previous three seasons. In 2022, he completed fourth in NL Rookie of the Yr voting, seemingly the best fielder of the long run for the Arizona Diamondbacks. It wasn’t the sort of efficiency that may make anybody assume that he — and never Corbin Carroll — was Arizona’s franchise participant. Nevertheless it was the sort of efficiency that might tempt inveterate contrarians into saying, “You realize, Carroll will get all the eye, however McCarthy is the one who actually makes this workforce tick.”

Then, in 2023, McCarthy was complete buttcrack. He barely stored his head above substitute degree as he misplaced enjoying time to Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Tommy Pham, and a partridge in a pear tree. Then, as a result of when it rains it pours — even within the desert — McCarthy suffered an indirect harm that stored him from enjoying any half within the Diamondbacks’ run to the World Collection.

However in 2024, he’s reclaimed his rightful place within the lineup, and he’s hitting .303/.375/.451. With nearly two months left within the common season, he’s set new profession highs in video games performed and WAR. All is properly as soon as once more.

Or, as a substitute of studying these three paragraphs, you possibly can simply learn this desk and intuit the narrative by yourself:

Say, what’s that column all the way in which over on the best with the numbers highlighted? Oh no, we’re going to speak about BABIP.

Effectively, first we’re going to speak about Austin Jackson. In December 2009, the Detroit Tigers took half in a three-way commerce with the Diamondbacks and Yankees that despatched star outfielder Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. It appeared like a drag on the time. Granderson was one of many Tigers’ finest gamers, and such a pleasant man he was actually onerous to hate, even in Yankee pinstripes.

However though Granderson posted two 40-homer seasons in his first three years in New York, the Tigers didn’t need to mope for lengthy. Jackson, the prized Yankee outfield prospect, took over in middle area and instantly changed into We Have Curtis Granderson at House: .293/.345/.400 with 27 stolen bases for a no-sweat 4.1 WAR season that arguably ought to have gained Jackson AL Rookie of the Yr.

(The Tigers additionally acquired a younger pitcher named Max Scherzer on this commerce, which I think about helped easy issues over with anybody who nonetheless missed Granderson.)

What we didn’t recognize on the time was Jackson’s .396 BABIP, which is the ninth-highest single-season mark in historical past for a professional hitter in a 162-game season. It’s not like Jackson went straight right into a tailspin after that — he was additionally superb in each 2012 and 2013 — however he didn’t fairly develop into the following Granderson in any case.

And it’s not like we didn’t know this on the time. Right here’s an article from August 2010 on FanGraphs dot com by Wisconsin baseball legend Jack Moore, analyzing how a lot of Jackson’s stratospheric BABIP was legit and the way a lot seemed like luck.

Estimating these inputs — luck versus talent — makes a giant distinction once you’re speaking about BABIP. A 50-point swing in BABIP is a distinction of 11 or 12 hits within the variety of at-bats McCarthy has had in every of the previous two seasons. That’s about 40 factors’ value of precise batting common, or the distinction between McCarthy being commerce fodder and a borderline All-Star.

Let’s begin by analyzing whether or not McCarthy has made good points exterior of balls which are recorded by BABIP. In different phrases, how productive is he on dwelling runs, strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and varied interferences. What’s the other of batting common on balls in play? Batting common on balls out of play. I desperately needed to name this little part “BABOOP,” however that’s not completely correct, as a result of most of those occasions aren’t batted balls, and I’m measuring greater than batting common, and… you understand what, to heck with it:

McCarthy is definitely strolling barely lower than he did final season, however he’s additionally chasing much less, lacking much less, and placing out much less. And that must be an intentional adjustment: Final yr, McCarthy swung on the first pitch 38.5% of the time. This yr, he’s swinging on the first pitch simply 31.0% of the time. And he appears to be making higher contact:

For those who take a look at McCarthy’s xBA, it does appear to be he was fortunate in 2022 however really good this season. Which brings up an essential level that’s peculiar to McCarthy.

Do not forget that xBA solely elements in a batted ball’s launch angle and exit velocity, however not horizontal placement. And it additionally doesn’t think about that should you have been to construct a hitter in a lab with the thing of getting a excessive BABIP, the product would look loads like McCarthy. (I don’t know why you would, however hey, it’s not my lab.) McCarthy is a left-handed groundball hitter (48.4% profession groundball fee), and likewise one of many quickest gamers within the league (97th-percentile dash velocity). He’s additionally inconceivable to shift; out of 209 gamers with no less than 300 PA this season, McCarthy has the 169th-highest pull fee. And that spray tendency solely will get extra excessive should you slim the pattern to grounders: McCarthy is 191st in pull fee among the many 222 gamers who’ve hit 80 or extra grounders this season.

And whereas McCarthy is unquestionably hitting the ball within the air extra — his GB/FB ratio is 1.32, up from 1.86 in 2023 — that’s solely in relative phrases. He’s nonetheless comfortably within the high half of the league for groundball fee. He additionally isn’t hitting it notably onerous; McCarthy is in simply the fifth percentile for EV50 and the second percentile for hard-hit fee. On line drives, the shortage of onerous contact is particularly pronounced. McCarthy’s BA-xBA on liners is .099, which is Seventeenth-highest out of the 357 batters who’ve put 100 or extra balls in play this yr. McCarthy’s hard-hit fee on line drives is simply 38.6, which is Twenty ninth-lowest amongst that very same group.

However simply getting the ball in play is half the battle, I assume. If there’s one factor McCarthy is definitely distinctive at as a hitter, it’s making contact, notably in opposition to fastballs. McCarthy is certainly one of simply 26 gamers who’s seen 150 or extra four-seamers this season and has a whiff fee of lower than 10%, and his efficiency in opposition to fastballs has been a serious driver of each his stoop in 2023 and his rebound this yr.

McCarthy is among the many league leaders in batting common and call fee, however on the different finish of the leaderboard in pull fee and bat velocity. And having stared at a bunch of these leaderboards, two sorts of hitters share McCarthy’s traits. First, there are absolutely the top-end bat management guys: Steven Kwan, Mookie Betts, Luis Arraez. The post-integration BABIP leaderboard places Rod Carew, Ichiro Suzuki, and Wade Boggs within the high 10, and two Derek Jeter season within the high 25.

The opposite sort of participant who hangs round this finish of the leaderboard is much less flattering: It’s singles hitters whose bat velocity has fully gone. Which illustrates how perilous the tightrope is for a hitter like McCarthy, who doesn’t have 80-grade cat-with-Jedi-training hand-eye coordination like Ichiro or Betts. When the whole lot goes proper, he may be top-of-the-line on-base guys within the league. However the whole lot has to go proper.