Whereas the Tampa Bay Lightning’s bottom-six has been depleted since their back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships in 2020 and 2021, the fourth line has proven optimistic indicators not too long ago. Regardless of a 2-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place on Tuesday evening (Dec. 10), the Lightning’s fourth line was a shiny spot.
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The trio of Michael Eyssimont and Zemgus Girgensons, centered by Luke Glendening, has been implausible at suppressing the standard of unblocked shot makes an attempt (xGA/60) towards when on the ice collectively. Right here’s a take a look at why this line might stick for head coach Jon Cooper and the Bolts come playoff time.
Neutralizing Play In opposition to Opponents is Sufficient for Fourth Line
The Lightning’s fourth line received’t produce a lot offensively. The road has mixed for 4 objectives and eight factors 26 video games into the season. However that’s not a priority for the reason that Bolts’ prime six forwards proceed to attain at an elite fee at five-on-five.
The vital distinction between final season’s backside six and this season’s is puck possession and unblocked shot makes an attempt. Final season, fourth-line gamers like Glendening, Tyler Motte, and Tanner Jeannot have been severely dominated in harmful Fenwick for share (DFF%) towards “elite” competitors through PuckIQ. This statistic makes use of components like distance, angle, and shot kind to assign a weight for unblocked shot makes an attempt, much like anticipated objectives (xG). The fourth-line gamers managed 34.3%, 43%, and 43.5% of the on-ice harmful Fenwick for share (DFF%). Nonetheless, this season has been very completely different.
Not solely has the Eyssimont, Girgenons, and Glendening line been efficient towards bottom-six competitors, but in addition towards among the NHL’s most proficient forwards. Regardless of the small pattern dimension, the gamers individually management 53.5%, 59.9%, and 57.3% of the harmful Fenwick share (DFF%). Moreover, in 93 minutes of ice time collectively, the trio has managed 63.2% of the on-ice anticipated objective share (xGF%) through MoneyPuck.
To not point out, they’re additionally creating a good quantity of offensive scoring possibilities, however their relative lack of ability will all the time maintain them beneath their particular person anticipated objective charges (ixG). The fourth line generates simply 0.05 anticipated objectives for per 60 (xGF/60) lower than the Lightning’s prime line. But, their most spectacular stat is their defensive probability suppression. The trio’s 1.61 anticipated objectives towards per 60 (xGA/60) ranks fourth amongst 85 completely different ahead line combos with over 90 minutes collectively this season.
Lightning Should Tackle Center-Six Scoring Over Fourth Line Gamers at Commerce Deadline
Opposite to standard perception, the Lightning’s principal weak spot upfront lies with the second-line proper wing and third-line roles, whereas the fourth line ought to stay collectively. Gamers like Mitchell Chaffee and Gage Goncalves have been on the rating sheet right here and there for the Bolts, however their stable objectives for share (GF%) aren’t sustainable long-term based mostly on their possession metrics. The Lightning should deal with their secondary scoring as a result of their fourth line has confirmed they’ll maintain their very own on the ice towards any degree of competitors.
In the course of the offseason, the Lightning added some property that could possibly be made obtainable to repair their middle-six ahead group. Gamers like Kaapo Kakko and Nils Hoglander make intriguing commerce targets as younger gamers on good contracts who might profit from a change of surroundings. At this stage of the rivalry window, Tampa Bay can’t maintain giving up high-end draft picks for leases. They need to begin prioritizing the group’s future as they did after they swapped Jake Guentzel for Steven Stamkos this summer time.
Closing Ideas
With the Lightning’s fourth line constructing extra chemistry in latest weeks, the ahead group’s defensive talents shouldn’t be a precedence for the entrance workplace. Eyssimont and the opposite forwards on the road are beginning to get their bounces after a dry offensive begin. Hold an eye fixed out for this trio within the coming weeks, they’ve had a serious impression in Tampa Bay.
