Luis Arraez Has Stopped Placing Out

The final time Luis Arraez struck out was August 10, a full month in the past. He struck out the day earlier than that as effectively. As of Tuesday morning, Arraez has performed in 42 of the Padres’ 46 video games in the course of the second half of the season, and he has struck out precisely twice. No different certified participant has struck out fewer than 15 instances because the All-Star break. Please take a second to consider that. It implies that the participant with the second-fewest strikeouts has struck out 7 1/2 instances greater than Arraez. Practically 75% of certified gamers have struck out at the least 30 instances. Arraez, as soon as once more, has accomplished so twice. Right here’s what that appears like in a graph. Every bar represents a professional participant and Arraez is the tiny inexperienced one all the best way to the correct. I’ve added a dashed line to offer you a way of how far beneath everybody else he’s.

Arraez at the moment has 26 strikeouts over your entire season. If he can keep beneath 30, he could be simply the ninth certified participant on this century to perform the feat, and the primary since Jeff Keppinger did so in 2008. Even if you happen to do depend 2020, even though Arraez has made 340 extra plate appearances (and counting) than any participant in that season, he at the moment has fewer strikeouts than all however 5 of the 142 certified gamers. Right here’s a chart of the entire 2024 season, only for good measure.

However let’s deal with simply the second half once more. The Padres had 17 video games left to play as of Tuesday morning, after I ran a Stathead search to see which gamers have had the fewest second-half strikeouts in AL/NL historical past. Though the primary All-Star Recreation was performed in 1933, the info goes again to 1901, and I set a minimal of 180 plate appearances. (With no break, I’m undecided how precisely Stathead divides these first 32 seasons, however we’re extra within the spirit of the factor anyway.) Together with Arraez, 32 gamers have struck out not more than two instances, 67 gamers have struck out not more than thrice, 127 have struck out not more than 4 instances, and 219 have struck out not more than 5 instances. (All of the stats I take advantage of on this piece are as of Tuesday morning, however earlier than I proceed, it’s price mentioning that Arraez went 3-for-5 and didn’t strike out in Tuesday night time’s sport in opposition to the Mariners.) Arraez has the possibility to hitch a really, very quick record. On the prime is John Dobbs, who in 1905 grew to become the one participant to go with out putting out in any respect within the second half. Extra importantly, he actually knew tips on how to rock a fisherman’s sweater.

Might you look into these eyes – these robust, soulful eyes which have peered into the depths of so many chilly and lonesome nights and seen solely the haunting shadow of despair – and handle to throw strike three? No person might in the course of the second half of the 1905 season.

The opposite takeaway from the record is simply how previous the names on it are: Wee Willie Keeler, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Shoeless Joe Jackson. If Arraez can keep away from putting out 4 extra instances over the following 17 video games, he’ll be simply the second participant to hitch this record since 1979. The primary participant? Tony Gwynn, who in 1993 struck out 4 instances over 208 second-half plate appearances whereas batting a crisp .400. Proper now, Arraez has a profession Okay%+ of 30, that means that over the course of his profession, he has struck out 70% much less usually than the common participant. Our all-time lists present a couple of gamers forward of him, however we don’t present precise strikeout totals for almost all of these gamers, so I don’t belief their numbers an excessive amount of. Of that group, the one quantity I actually belief is Gwynn’s 29. Maybe you keep in mind some talk-radio screeching from earlier this season, when Arraez bought traded to San Diego. Some remarked that Arraez’s ending up a Padre was a becoming tribute to Gwynn, whereas others took offense on the comparability.

It’s simple that Gwynn was a greater participant. Arraez put up a 131 wRC+ in each 2022 and ’23, the very best marks of his profession. Gwynn surpassed that mark in eight completely different seasons, and ended his profession with a 132 wRC+. He put up a 126 wRC+ in his age-41 season, whereas the 27-year-old Arraez has but to hit his decline part. Lastly, Arraez has by no means actually had a defensive place, whereas Gwynn was a baserunning risk and a strong defender till knee points slowed him down. Nonetheless, I might remind you of the variations of their eras. The opposite plus stats make an eloquent argument for Arraez as Gwynn’s rightful inheritor.

You could be stunned to be taught that, relative to his period, Arraez is definitely higher than Gwynn at hitting for common. The most important distinction between the 2 is that Gwynn was extra of a slugger. Similar to Gwynn, Arraez is undoubtedly the premier contact hitter of his period. Nonetheless, contact is way, a lot tougher to come back by on this period. We in all probability shouldn’t be stunned that with the intention to hit for a comparable common, Arraez has needed to sacrifice extra energy than Gwynn did.

Right here’s the place issues get tough. You may argue that the basis causes behind Arraez’s declining strikeout charge are additionally the basis causes behind the step again in his efficiency this season. To begin with, in every of the previous two seasons, his chase charge has made an infinite leap. From 2019 to ’22, his chase charge was regular at a hair above 24%. Final season, it elevated to 31.8%, and this season it’s as much as 35.6%. In two seasons, Arraez has dropped from the 78th percentile to the tenth. Usually, chasing extra would result in extra strikeouts, however Arraez isn’t regular, and his contact charge has gone up sufficient each inside and outdoors the strike zone that he’s nonetheless making extra contact general. Sports activities Data Resolution has been monitoring plate self-discipline since 2002, and the scatterplot beneath exhibits the info for all 3,366 certified participant seasons since.

These two dots within the purple circle signify Arraez in 2023 and ’24. Simply six different gamers have ever made that a lot contact, and nobody has accomplished so whereas chasing wherever close to as usually. In consequence, Arraez is on tempo to place the ball in play 616 instances, essentially the most since Statcast began monitoring batted ball occasions in 2015, and his stroll charge has fallen much more dramatically than his strikeout charge.

That’s not all. As a result of extra of the balls he places into play are approaching pitches which are exterior the strike zone, he’s not hitting the ball as exhausting as he used to. Final 12 months, a .362 BABIP masked the distinction, however this 12 months he’s at .325. It’s not exhausting to see why. When he swings at pitches within the zone, his exit velocity is 88.8 mph. On pitches exterior the zone, it’s 80.9, almost 8 mph decrease. In consequence, Arraez’s .332 xwOBA is the bottom of his profession. Placing out much less is nice, however if you happen to stroll much less too and produce much less on balls in play, it doesn’t matter a lot. I do not know whether or not the Marlins or the Padres have tried to get Arraez to be a bit extra selective. His expertise for squaring up the ball makes him such an outlier; I wouldn’t be shocked to listen to that they simply let him do his factor as a result of they don’t wish to get in his head and mess up his one bizarre trick.

Nonetheless, Arraez hasn’t simply stopped putting out. Although his chase charge has elevated from 34.6% within the first half to 37.8%, he’s lastly hitting sufficient to show his season round. He’s working a 119 wRC+ within the second half, lifting his season mark from 104 to 109. This may virtually definitely be the third straight season during which Arraez runs baseball’s lowest strikeout charge, and it’ll very in all probability give him his third straight batting title. Additionally, he’s struck out trying simply twice all season. To date, 34 completely different gamers have struck out trying at the least thrice in a single sport.

Let’s finish by taking a look at certainly one of Arraez’s two second-half strikeouts. Each got here in opposition to the Marlins, with whom Arraez began the season and who due to this fact in all probability had a fairly good scouting report in opposition to him. I’m going to point out you the August 9 strikeout, as a result of it’s a doozy. It got here within the prime of the eighth inning in opposition to George Soriano. House plate umpire Scott Barry had a excessive strike zone all sport, and it looks as if Soriano was conscious of it. Right here’s strike one:

That’s a four-seamer that catches the very, very nook of the zone up and away. It’s a borderline strike, and when the pitcher will get the decision, there’s not a lot you are able to do however tip your cap. Right here’s the second pitch:

That’s now not borderline. That’s a slider, and in response to each Statcast and the on-screen strike zone it missed excessive. How usually do pitchers miss above the zone with a breaking ball and earn a known as strike? Not usually. As you’ll be able to see, Arraez shouldn’t be notably pleased about ending up within the gap 0-2 due to a borderline name adopted by a blown name. At this level, he virtually definitely appears like he has to swing at something, as a result of there’s completely no purpose to belief the umpire’s strike zone. Right here’s strike three:

That’s a verify swing on a wonderfully executed again foot slider. Personally, I might argue that Arraez didn’t go, but it surely’s a detailed name both method.

Simply to recap, we’ve bought a borderline strike on the nook, a missed name above the zone, and a borderline checked swing. That’s a tough luck strikeout if ever there was one. Arraez would strike out as soon as extra the following day, then resolve that he was accomplished with such issues, presumably eternally.