Making Sense of the Flyers’ Travis Konecny Extension – The Hockey Writers – Flyers Transactions

On July 25, 2024, 27-year-old Travis Konecny signed what’s now the most important contract within the historical past of the Philadelphia Flyers: eight years, $70 million ($8.75 million common annual worth)—it comes with commerce safety and can start in 2025-26. On the floor, it’s objectively one of many worst offers handed out by any workforce this offseason, if not the worst. However is it actually?

Primarily based on his numbers and what he’s as a participant, Konecny received an excessive amount of cash and approach an excessive amount of time period from common supervisor (GM) Danny Briere—however that’s not the purpose of this piece. Let’s try to perceive the Flyers’ perspective.

Konecny Was Overpaid, However That Would possibly Be Okay

To be able to have a good-faith argument, we should set up one factor: gamers like Konecny don’t are inclined to age properly. He’s the precise duplicate that Carolina Hurricanes GM Eric Tulsky stated tends to fall off the quickest in an article from 2014. Konecny doesn’t have a excessive hockey IQ, he does principally all of his scoring at even power, and is a goal-scorer—all issues that had been highlighted. Whereas that piece is on the older aspect, the themes are nonetheless true and largely depend upon widespread sense, anyway. Somebody who primarily makes use of his legs and athleticism to make a distinction on the rating sheet, that’s one thing that can inevitably fade for Konecny. And probably prior to later.

Konecny’s model is similar to Cam Atkinson’s when he was in his prime, and we after all understand how that scenario ended. When the latter misplaced the athleticism that initially earned him his contract, he grew to become a legal responsibility at each ends of the ice at even power and was purchased out. Each have been rush-dependent scorers for his or her whole careers however possessed a little bit of in-zone upside once they had good groups round them. Nonetheless, when that athleticism pale for Atkinson, he was not a risk on the frenzy—he misplaced his whole recreation, and that’s what’s going to virtually undoubtedly occur to Konecny in some unspecified time in the future.

This evaluation is nearer to life like than pessimistic, sadly. By the fifth or sixth 12 months of his contract, Konecny in all probability received’t be the identical participant, and maybe unusable altogether by the seventh or eighth 12 months. When you get to your mid-30s, the frenzy recreation isn’t the identical anymore. Ask Sidney Crosby, who went from scoring an honest chunk of his objectives on the frenzy in his 20s to being a dominant in-zone scorer in his 30s. Since he has generational hockey IQ, he was in a position to make that transition.

This stuff are all vital to contemplate for context. But when we actually assess Konecny, perhaps it’s not all doom and gloom. Maybe there’s some gentle on the finish of the tunnel.

Konecny has principally scored on the similar factors per 60 (P/60) charge since his age-20 season, whatever the expertise round him. Even assuming that the Flyers give him higher linemates, which is unlikely since he and 19-year-old Matvei Michkov play the identical place, the scoring received’t change an excessive amount of. However perhaps that’s not the purpose.

It can take a while for Michkov to have the ability to deal with the ice time that Konecny was routinely taking part in from 2022-2024. Averaging 19:58 of ice time in that span, counting on a 19-year-old so shortly won’t be the very best for his improvement. It’s good to have choices, so theoretically having two reliable top-six strains is wise in principle. what you’re getting with Konecny versus another person being thrust into that function. If he can deal with top-line matchups, he can deal with something.

It’s additionally vital to acknowledge that Konecny makes vital gamers round him higher. the entire forwards aged 25 and underneath with which he performed 250 or extra minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, his teammates vastly improved by his aspect.

For the stats comparability, we’ll use relative anticipated objectives proportion (xGF% Rel), relative Corsi proportion (CF% Rel), and relative objectives proportion (GF% Rel)—a glossary for these stats might be discovered right here. Percentile-wise amongst all forwards within the NHL in 2023-24, what did Konecny carry?

There have been no indicators to point that Konecny will fall off a cliff instantly. In actual fact, final season was in all probability the very best of his profession. He ought to assist these round him obtain their most potential for a short time longer—buying and selling him would have meant sacrificing the event of gamers like Tyson Foerster. Is that one thing the Flyers actually need, even when Konecny won’t be what he’s at this time in his mid-30s?

As properly, the Flyers had been going to want a Konecny-esque offensive risk anyway. Many long-term offers in free company are inclined to age quite poorly by the tip of the contract, as that’s simply how the human physique works. So, Konecny is principally a de facto free-agent deal that the Flyers would have wanted anyway. It is a level to revisit later and why Philadelphia might need performed this, however simply bear in mind it for now.

Konecny’s Off-Ice Impression

Signing a participant solely for his or her impression off of the ice is a nasty thought, virtually at all times. However the truth that Konecny is useful to the workforce’s tradition and is well-liked within the Flyers locker room is an indisputable fact. Greater than any free agent, the 27-year-old has a sentimental impression to the followers and his teammates alike. Would buying and selling him have despatched the flawed message? That’s one thing Briere selected to not discover out.

Gamers like Konecny, who has basically taken the torch from Wayne Simmonds by way of his attraction and management, are coveted across the league. What made somebody like Simmonds so precious went past simply on the ice. When he was traded, the Flyers misplaced a bit of themselves; they misplaced their identification. Konecny is similar kind of participant within the sense that he’s well-respected within the locker room and by the fanbase. On the floor, a 27-year-old winger with a 68-point career-high on terrible defensive effectivity shouldn’t be making more cash than a 28-year-old winger who scored 67 complete objectives and completed fourth in Selke Trophy voting final season—this a lot proves how critical the overpayment is, particularly for the reason that offers had been signed three weeks aside. Nevertheless it’s deeper than that.

Typically, there’s a human facet to sports activities. The Flyers performed a few of their most impressed hockey in years final season, and Konecny performed a giant function in that. Buying and selling him might have destroyed the Flyers earlier than they actually even received an opportunity to unfold their wings. In essence, the contract shouldn’t be in regards to the cash; it’s in regards to the participant. When a participant is that vital to your locker room, generally it’s important to chew the bullet.

How Can the Flyers Maximize Konecny’s Worth?

The Flyers can maximize Konecny’s worth by doing one factor, which is one thing I argued they had been already doing a couple of month in the past: retooling. With this extension, it’s clear that that is their course of. It was a brief rebuild, however these days are over. The Orange and Black are attempting to win.

Associated: How the Flyers Can Efficiently Retool Their Roster

If the Flyers plan to win in Konecny’s window, then the extension isn’t all that irrational. It’s nonetheless an overpayment, however attempting to no less than be a contender through the years when he’ll present probably the most makes quite a lot of sense. The entire level of a contract like that is to win instantly, and that appears to be what the Flyers are doing.

If the Flyers are certainly retooling, we are able to anticipate them to start out pulling off some “hockey trades” and make strikes to accumulate an answer down the center—this appears to be their greatest weak spot. Since Konecny ought to nonetheless have a couple of good years left in principle, there’s time to perform this. Michkov will proceed to get higher, gamers on the roster will enhance, prospects will graduate to the NHL, and there can be offseason additions. Theoretically, the Flyers can be enhancing by means of the draft after each season while additionally being aggressive 12 months after 12 months. Finally, a couple of good playoff runs are inevitable—you may’t fulfill this imaginative and prescient to its finest with out Konecny. If that is the imaginative and prescient, the contract is less complicated to swallow.

It’s about break up as as to whether or not Konecny is overpaid, but when we ignore the worth for a second, it’s simpler to appease everybody. The 27-year-old has optimistic traits and might be vital to the Flyers’ course of, which is probably going why they had been so insistent on paying him.

Stats courtesy of Pure Stat Trick