Logan Gilbert is coming off his finest season but, posting a 3.23 ERA and excellent strikeout and stroll charges over a Main League-leading 208 2/3 innings. The previous 14th general choose has lived as much as the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and whereas he has cemented his place within the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t but a lock for the group’s future plans. Adam Jude of the Seattle Occasions studies that “there was little dialogue a couple of long-term deal” between the 2 sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”
There are a number of the explanation why the shortage of talks shouldn’t elevate an alarm for M’s followers. Gilbert is just getting into his second yr of arbitration eligibility, and he’s beneath group management via 2027 as a Tremendous Two participant. Gilbert and the Mariners averted a listening to final winter by agreeing to a $4.05MM wage for 2024, and the right-hander’s large efficiency this yr has put him in line for a projected $8.1MM wage in 2025.
These numbers will maintain rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert retains pitching properly in his remaining arb years, however that might nonetheless characterize a relative discount for the Mariners to have ace-level manufacturing of their rotation. Signing Gilbert to an extension previous to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty via the remainder of his arbitration years and past, and such a deal may nonetheless find yourself being a discount since Gilbert may simply be getting higher.
The 2024 season noticed Gilbert submit a career-best 27.4% strikeout price and 31.7% whiff price, along with his standard glorious management. His 39.3% hard-hit ball price was additionally the perfect of his 4 Main League seasons, and whereas this solely ranked within the forty fourth percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had by no means topped the eleventh percentile in any of his prior three years.
As an entire, Seattle’s rotation shouldn’t be solely maybe the perfect in baseball but additionally probably the most cost-effective. Luis Castillo has the large contract of the bunch within the type of the five-year, $108MM extension he signed in September 2022, however Gilbert is getting into his second arb yr, George Kirby is projected for $5.5MM in his first arb yr, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are nonetheless of their pre-arbitration years. Former sixth general choose Emerson Hancock hasn’t proven a lot over his 72 2/3 profession MLB innings, however he’s one other promising younger arm that might’ve gotten an extended look in just about any rotation that didn’t have such high quality and sturdiness.
This abundance of pitching expertise is nice for the Mariners in some ways, together with the extent of flexibility it offers the group in approaching extension talks. With a nod to the “you may by no means have sufficient pitching” credo, the M’s don’t essentially have to lock up Gilbert as quickly as doable since so many different proficient hurlers are available. The entire remaining group management for the non-Castillo pitchers offers the Mariners further time to weigh their choices about which of the youthful arms (if any) could be long-term cornerstones. As an illustration, if the M’s have already seen sufficient from Miller or Woo, signing both to an extension earlier of their careers would come at a decrease value than an extension for Gilbert.
If any of those starters aren’t actually in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a commerce is all the time doable, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the concept the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, although Dipoto’s stance might soften if one other group makes a robust sufficient supply. Particularly, if that provide incorporates a relatively proficient younger hitter with further years of group management, transferring a starter for this hitter would assist a Seattle membership in sore want of offensive assist.
This isn’t to say that Gilbert would essentially be the pitcher traded, escalating wage however. One NL scout informed Jude that “in the event that they need to commerce somebody, Miller would take advantage of sense,” although the scout additionally felt “it will be ridiculous for them to commerce any of their starters.” As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic dwelling/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that different groups could also be cautious that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. Castillo is the least-likely commerce candidate, based on one supply, as a result of his bigger contract and the truth that he’s getting into his age-32 season.
