Unbeaten colt Jan Brueghel has the burden of historical past and kilograms towards him within the Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup favorite Jan Brueghel arrived at Werribee secure and sound final Saturday night time with no concept of the duty forward of him come the primary Tuesday in November.
Aidan O’Brien, head coach of Ballydoyle Stables, might not have had a greater likelihood to win his first Melbourne Cup, with Jan Brueghel a chance to start out shorter than any of his different 17 Cup runners, and by all accounts the inexperienced colt has settled into Werribee nicely, based on travelling foreman Kieran Murphy.
“He travelled over nice, exercised on the monitor yesterday and once more this morning. He’s consuming and consuming, and we couldn’t be happier,” Murphy instructed the VRC.
“He’s nonetheless a younger horse with solely 4 runs, however the way in which he gained the Leger exhibits he can get the journey. We’re hoping he’ll keep the additional two furlongs.”
For a northern hemisphere three-year-old with simply 4 begins to his title, the colt by Galileo, who’s progeny may have accounted for 2 thirds (12 of 18) of Adian O’Brien’s 2024 Melbourne Cup runners, has made an instantaneous influence on the monitor.
No horse has ever gained the Melbourne Cup at such an early level of their profession with fellow northern hemisphere three-year-old Cross Counter at simply his eighth begin the earliest in trendy occasions.
That O’Brien opts to deliver Jan Breughel over ought to converse volumes of his opinion of the horse, and conveniently we don’t must probe far to seek out one which makes for straightforward comparisons.
Tiger Moth, additionally skilled by O’Brien, got here to Flemington in 2020 with 4 begins beneath his belt and began a $6.50 slight second elect, carrying 52.5kg, which some felt on the time was a harsh impost for a horse of his age and restricted publicity.
That proved false as though the horse didn’t win, he went inside a neck of turning into Aidan’s first Melbourne Cup winner at his seventeenth try to take action.
European trainers began to grasp round ten years in the past {that a} flippantly raced three-year-old ‘beat the handicapper’ in a Melbourne Cup, and Aidan has despatched over six in the hunt for successful one of many few worldwide majors to elude him- right here’s their report, together with their Timeform score main in.
*Had run nicely beneath finest at two runs main into Flemington.
For comparability, Jan Brueghel is rated 120 by Timeform off his final begin win within the St Leger at Doncaster, beating the 118 rated stablemate Illinois, who has since gained the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp properly.
In the meantime, the 2 northern hemisphere colts to have come to Flemington and gained the Melbourne Cup, Cross Counter (51kg) and Rekindling (51.5kg), had been rated 124 and 121 respectively by Timeform coming over.
All that mentioned, Jan Brueghel has a giant process forward of him. He’s an excellent, however not elite three-year-old in Europe, and with the weights catching as much as these varieties, 54kg ensures he’ll nearly definitely must run a brand new peak to win.
Tiger Moth came to visit 4 begins beneath his belt rated 120, improved once more at Flemington and was crushed, however my really feel is that Jan Brueghel is the higher horse, and the way in which he’s been campaigned, and the actual fact he’s unbeaten, would counsel that.
He’s a real, grinding stayer who gained’t burst ahead with a flip of foot. As an alternative, he’ll be scrubbed alongside from at the very least the 800m mark, which generally hasn’t been conducive to Australian racing.
In his favour nonetheless is the person on prime. On this (and nearly each) situation, Ryan Moore is the one jockey you’d need driving Jan Brueghel- he’ll know the tempo should be on from the outset, and that he mustn’t journey to quicken. Will probably be ugly but stunning.
He’ll have to be each bit nearly as good as he’s promised to be, however in a 12 months that seems to lack these real 120+ rated horses, Aidan O’Brien and the punters would, and may fancy their possibilities of Jan Brueghel portray a successful image come the primary Tuesday in November.
*Present prospects solely. 2nd Racing guess. Excl SA & WA. T’s & C’s apply. Gamble responsibly.
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