MLB Mailbag: Guerrero, Alonso, Yoshida, Alcantara, Cubs, Mariners

This week’s mailbag will get into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether or not the Mets ought to transfer on from Alonso, whether or not any MLB commerce was as stunning because the NBA’s Luka Doncic deal, those that really feel this MLB offseason has been uninteresting, how a lot the Pink Sox must eat on Masataka Yoshida‘s contract, attainable Sandy Alcantara suitors, and way more.

Jed asks:

Why is the overall expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will recover from $400m in free company subsequent winter for 10+ years regardless of being a defensively restricted, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I’ve seen a lot protection about how he might not get greater than a $23m AAV from the Mets for not more than three years whole. Clearly Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and can be taking part in his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. However Vlad Jr. will likely be 27 in 2026, the primary 12 months of his presumptive 10+ 12 months mega deal. After these first three seasons on Vlad’s hypothetical 10+ 12 months mega deal, he may even be taking part in his age-30 season within the fourth 12 months of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.

Except for getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits satisfied that an costly, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes extra sense than a short-term cope with a $23m AAV for Alonso (particularly contemplating that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 extra homers and posted the next slugging proportion)? Why is everybody satisfied that Vlad Jr represents a greater long-term guess to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the opposite numerous examples of RHB 1B who failed to supply of their 30s?

I can not communicate to normal expectations; solely my very own.  I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December tenth.  A key level was, “A lot is dependent upon which Guerrero reveals up in 2025.”

I strongly desire the wRC+ stat to dwelling run totals and slugging proportion.  We have to account for offensive contributions apart from the house run, and in a extra logical approach than slugging proportion (a house run shouldn’t be value 4 occasions as a lot as a single, for instance).  Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024.  In these years, he hit so properly that his protection was an afterthought and he was value 5-6 WAR.  Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or higher seasons beneath his belt previous to free company (extrapolating his rookie 12 months and the shortened 2020 season), and it is as a result of he is by no means posted worse than a 143 wRC+.

Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that extra human vary can drop him all the way in which to 1-3 WAR.  That is a man you very a lot do not wish to be paying $40MM a 12 months.  However Vlad at all times has the batted-ball information to again up elite offense, and with one other 160+ season I do assume provides attain $400MM+.

Alonso’s greatest season was his rookie 12 months with a 144 wRC+.  His second-best was 141 in 2022.  He is been at 121 during the last two years.  He is a 2-3 WAR participant who’s proven a ceiling of 4 WAR.  Guerrero has proven extra variance, however his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he almost reached it within the recently-completed season.

In evaluating age, I would take a look at the Opening Day distinction of every participant’s first 12 months beneath a brand new free agent contract.  In different phrases, evaluating age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero.  Utilizing that strategy, Guerrero is 3.27 years youthful.  These being prime years, they’re extremely necessary with regards to free agent contracts.