NASCAR playoff surprises and the title threats dealing with elimination

Chris Buescher spoiled the playoff get together by profitable at Watkins Glen, however he was removed from the one one stealing priceless factors away from the title contenders. There’s additionally Ross Chastain, who led half the race and gained the second stage. In the long run, just one playoff driver completed contained in the top-ten in a chaotic race, with a number of discovering hassle on the very first lap — shaking up the standings much more, persevering with to show how unpredictable this yr’s Spherical of 16 was anticipated to be. Here is a more in-depth take a look at the place issues stand as we shut in on the Bristol elimination race.

Surprises close to the highest

Some drivers are respiration a sigh of reduction getting into Bristol, however these that aren’t are additionally not the names onlookers would have chosen to be on the cusp of elimination simply weeks in the past. Austin Cindric sits 43 factors above the cut-line and is third within the playoff standings. Proper behind him is Alex Bowman. Though Bowman drives for Hendrick Motorsports, few would have put him forward of his three teammates at first of the playoffs, however that is precisely the place he’s. And in fifth is Daniel Suarez, who a number of picked as a primary spherical exit. After practically profitable at Atlanta and gathering an honest quantity of factors at The Glen, he’s now 36 factors up. None of those drivers are locked in, however they must be feeling pretty secure from elimination going into this race weekend. However with these surprises close to the highest, it means among the extra severe title threats are actually drifting in the direction of the underside.

Feeling the stress

A final-place end at Watkins Glen eroded 16 factors from Ryan Blaney’s cushion however fortunately for the defending Cup champ, a powerful exhibiting at Atlanta leaves him 29 factors up. He is now eighth within the standings, and whereas not comfy, he is feeling higher than two members of Hendrick Motorsports.

Kyle Larson, a dominant power all through the 2024 season, is 26 factors up solely due to the bucket of bonus factors he introduced with him. It has been two tough weeks for the motive force of the No. 5 Chevrolet, in addition to teammate William Byron, who is only one level additional behind. And with drivers within the elimination zone absolutely able to profitable this weekend, their margin is realistically smaller than it exhibits with a win mechanically vaulting any a type of drivers under them into the subsequent spherical. 

If these drivers are on the new seat, then issues have to be on fireplace within the room the place Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs sit. In equity to Briscoe, he made an unbelievable comeback at The Glen, coming from 21 factors again to being six factors up. The truth that he gained 28 factors is sufficient proof to maintain drivers like Larson and Byron nervous this weekend. However then there’s Ty Gibbs, making his playoff debut. He hasn’t been flashy on-track this yr and that continued into the playoffs. He left Atlanta on the bubble and now Watkins Glen in the identical in place, simply six factors forward. However in a stunning twist, he’s nonetheless above half of the Joe Gibbs Racing fleet.

Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing, CW Sports activities Toyota Camry

Picture by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Photos

Now, here is a shock. Hamlin is essentially the most profitable driver in NASCAR historical past and not using a Cup title. Yearly, it looks like it’d lastly be his time, however one thing at all times occurs to derail his efforts. He simply missed out on the Championship 4 in 2022 and 2023, however misfortune is visiting him early on this yr’s playoffs. A questionable resolution to experience within the again resulted in catastrophe at Atlanta, and a poor qualifying effort at Watkins Glen bought him collected in a Lap 1 wreck.

He additionally misplaced misplaced ten bonus factors simply earlier than the playoffs started resulting from an engine penalty, which might be vital right here. Nonetheless, there may be excellent news for the motive force of the No. 11 Toyota. The elimination race takes place at Bristol the place he has 4 victories — together with profitable the final two occasions there. It could be the right race for him to attempt to rescue his season.

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, FedEx Toyota Camry

Picture by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Photos

The 2012 NASCAR Cup champion is one other driver with a number of wins at Bristol and extra not too long ago, a third-place end within the spring race. He is surrounded on all sides by JGR drivers and his state of affairs feels extra dire than Hamlin’s. Issues simply have not been going his approach over the previous few weeks. He has only one top-five within the final 13 races. At Watkins Glen, he was concerned in at the least three incidents however he by no means gave up. Regardless of all that, RFK Racing does have a little bit of momentum proper now after profitable at Watkins Glen with Buescher. I would put his possibilities at 50/50 for advancing into the subsequent spherical.

Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing, King’s Hawaiian Ford Mustang

Picture by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Photos

Oh, Martin. The 2017 NASCAR Cup champion has had a cloud of misfortune following him in all places he goes since profitable the 2023 common season champion. The previous few months have been an unmitigated catastrophe for the motive force of the No. 19 automobile, regardless of having velocity on a constant foundation. Simply take a look at the current finishes for MTJ: twentieth, thirty fifth, thirty sixth, twenty fourth, twenty fourth, thirty seventh, twenty seventh. He is averaging a end of twenty ninth during the last seven races regardless of a mean beginning place of twelfth over the identical interval. Bristol is a good observe for Truex, however we’re on the level now the place we might be shocked if one thing would not go incorrect. That is Truex’s final full-time season as a Cup driver, however his last title run could also be over within the first spherical if he cannot shake this dangerous luck.

Martin Truex Jr, Joe Gibbs Racing, Reser’s Nice Meals Toyota Camry

Picture by: Gavin Baker / NKP / Motorsport Photos

With all resulting from respect to Harrison, it will have been a shock if he wasn’t on this place. The Wooden Brothers Racing driver was final amongst full-time drivers in factors earlier than his shock victory at Daytona. Being within the playoffs is a big second for him and the No. 21 staff, but it surely was by no means doubtless for him to advance past the Spherical of 16. Stranger issues have occurred, but it surely’s doubtless sport over for Burton at Bristol.

Harrison Burton, Wooden Brothers Racing, Freightliner Ford Mustang

Picture by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Photos

Playoff standings after Watkins Glen