A 12 months in the past, Cubs middle fielder Cody Bellinger was placing the ending touches on a implausible rebound marketing campaign that noticed him place within the high ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second profession Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year cope with Chicago and slashed a superb .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 dwelling runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what appeared positive to be a major payday in free company over the winter.
That, after all, didn’t come to move. Bellinger was one among a number of free brokers who discovered himself struggling to discover a deal that met expectations, and finally returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after every season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t fairly lived as much as his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 journeys to the plate whereas his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 determine that’s extra in keeping with his profession norms and his energy manufacturing has dipped to extra carefully match his batted ball metrics.
As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not or to not train his upcoming opt-out alternative this November, it’s truthful to surprise if there’s any motive for him to contemplate opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his earlier platform 12 months, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Certainly, USA At this time’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “totally anticipated” to stay with the Cubs relatively than exercising his opt-out a returning to free company this winter. Regardless of these expectations, nevertheless, the likelihood that Bellinger might as an alternative look to hit the open marketplace for the third consecutive offseason can’t be ignored.
In spite of everything, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, whereas worse than final 12 months, are nonetheless effectively above league common. Extra importantly, nevertheless, his 2024 manufacturing is mostly backed up by his peripheral numbers and seems more likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks partly to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout charge for the second consecutive season this 12 months, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for Sixteenth-best within the majors this 12 months, simply forward of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.
That improved mixture of contact and self-discipline on the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in energy manufacturing Bellinger has skilled this 12 months, and remains to be greater than sufficient to make Bellinger one of many high bats at his place within the majors. Amongst certified middle fielders this 12 months, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this 12 months ranks seventh within the majors whereas his .332 on-base share is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind solely AL MVP candidates Aaron Choose and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s capability to play a top quality middle area whereas additionally delivering above common offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that with out him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit simply .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 journeys to the plate with the Mets this 12 months, as the highest participant accessible.
Given the truth that Bellinger additionally has an choose out following the 2025 season, it’s simple to think about that he would possibly merely be higher off sticking with the Cubs, amassing a $27.5MM wage subsequent 12 months, after which returning to free company previous to the 2026 season, when he can be leaving simply $20MM on the desk relatively than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this 12 months. Whereas it’s true {that a} dominant offensive season from Bellinger might increase his profile, he’d even be advertising his age-30 marketing campaign versus his age-29 season and getting into free company on the improper aspect of 30 can considerably depress a participant’s incomes potential. What’s extra, he’d face far more competitors in middle area subsequent 12 months: The 2025-26 free agent class at present initiatives to incorporate different notable middle area choices like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the likelihood that Bader indicators a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself subsequent winter.
Bellinger’s standing amongst free company’s high middle fielders can be diminished additional by the truth that, he would virtually assuredly not be utilized in middle area subsequent 12 months if he had been to stay with Chicago. The membership’s recently-graduated high prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over middle area regularly in latest weeks, pairing elite protection on the place with 9 homers and 27 stolen bases in simply 356 journeys to the plate this 12 months. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t instantly soar off the web page, nevertheless it’s price noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) for the reason that begin of July.
With Crow-Armstrong all however sure to be the membership’s on a regular basis middle fielder in 2025, that may probably depart Bellinger compelled to maneuver to proper area each day ought to he play for the Cubs subsequent 12 months, placing extra strain on his bat to provide at a degree commensurate with the expectations of the place. Spectacular as Bellinger’s offense has been for a middle fielder, he ranks simply twentieth amongst 49 certified outfielders this 12 months by way of wRC+, leaving him as a considerably middling choice offensively for an outfield nook. And not using a vital step ahead offensively subsequent 12 months, it’s simple to think about Bellinger leaving cash on the desk by not exercising his opt-out this 12 months and returning to free company whereas he’s nonetheless below 30 years previous and enjoying middle area on a semi-regular foundation.
