Earlier this week, we checked out among the greatest contracts within the NHL primarily based on current efficiency and the way they challenge to age within the coming years. At the moment, we’ll be flipping course and taking a look at among the worst contracts primarily based on current efficiency and the way they may age. Let’s get proper into it.
10. Mikhail Sergachev
Contract: 7 years remaining, $8.5 million cap hit
There’s most likely a motive the Tampa Bay Lightning moved on from Mikhail Sergachev solely a 12 months after he signed an eight-year extension price $8.5 million yearly. Accidents performed a component in his struggles this previous season; he solely appeared in 34 video games. Nonetheless, except for a wonderful season in 2022-23, there’s not a lot to recommend he’s an $8.5 million participant.
Associated: NHL’s 10 Finest Contracts for 2024-25
Sergachev completed the 2022-23 season with 64 factors in 79 video games, shattering a earlier career-high of 40 he set as a rookie in 2018-19. However that in itself is a purple flag. Whereas Sergachev had been a gradual level producer earlier than 2022-23, he averaged 40 factors per 82 video games. In fact, in a contract 12 months, he popped for 64 factors, nicely off from his profession averages.
Sergachev additionally set a career-high in targets above alternative (GAR) at 12.4 and wins above alternative (WAR) at 2.1 in 2022-23. In any other case, he’s been round a 0.5 to 1.0 WAR participant for his profession. Is that an $8.5 million participant? Utah HC appears to consider he’s, and he’ll seemingly be on their prime pair alongside John Marino. However the truth the Lightning reduce bait so rapidly after signing him to that huge extension ought to elevate eyebrows.
9. Darnell Nurse
Contract: 6 years remaining, $9.25 million cap hit
It’s not that Darnell Nurse is a nasty participant. He’s not, nevertheless it’s laborious to argue that he’s price $9.25 million or ever get to a degree the place he’s price his contract. His manufacturing during the last three seasons has been strong, averaging 39 factors per 82 video games. However even for a defenseman, that’s not price $9.25 million yearly.
Nurse’s underlying metrics recommend related as nicely. He hasn’t recorded a GAR increased than 4.1 or a WAR increased than 0.7 during the last three seasons. Given the place he’s in his profession, likelihood is these numbers gained’t enhance to the place he’s price $9.25 million. If the Oilers might discover a method to clear his contract, they most likely would since they’re tight on the cap. However it appears like they’ll be caught together with his deal for the foreseeable future.
8. Filip Hronek
Contract: 8 years remaining, $7.25 million
The Vancouver Canucks have gotten smarter about crew constructing since Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford have taken over the entrance workplace, however they nonetheless can’t appear to keep away from that one dangerous contract. I can’t blame them for paying Filip Hronek this offseason. He had an ideal 12 months alongside Quinn Hughes, however I’m undecided that nice season is sustainable.
Hronek completed this previous season with a GAR of 10.9 however an anticipated GAR (xGAR) of minus-6.9. That means there was loads of flukiness in his outcomes, and there’s extra proof of that. His on-ice capturing share of 11.9 p.c at five-on-five was the best of his profession, and 19 of his 30 assists at five-on-five have been secondary helpers.
I get wanting to maintain Hughes’ protection associate locked up long-term, however there are many purple flags to recommend what Hronek did in a contract 12 months isn’t sustainable. He’s been a middle-of-the-lineup defenseman for many of his profession, and is prone to revert to that. That’s not somebody price $7.25 million yearly.
7. Sean Couturier
Contract: 6 years remaining, $7.75 million cap hit
The Philadelphia Flyers are in rebuild mode and have cleared many dangerous contracts they’d on the books. However sadly, one of many uncommon dangerous contracts on their cap is likely one of the worst within the NHL. Accidents have hampered Sean Couturier’s profession, and whereas his impacts have been fairly good this previous season, it’s tough to argue he’s a $7.75 million participant anymore.
Couturier’s underlying metrics have been strong final season. His play was price a complete GAR of 8.7 and a WAR of 1.4 throughout 74 video games, however he solely totaled 38 factors, which isn’t $7.75 million worthy. Given the character of his accidents, plus him turning 32 this coming season, this isn’t a contract that can seemingly age nicely. Certain, the underlying metrics should still maintain up, however many of those contracts get judged by counting totals.
Sadly, the Flyers are most likely caught with this deal for the foreseeable future. No crew will take it off the books with out vital retention, one thing the Flyers seemingly don’t wish to do, given what number of years stay on it. And a buyout isn’t believable for a couple of extra years at a minimal.
6. Elias Lindholm
Contract: 7 years, $7.75 million cap hit
Elias Lindholm has but to play a recreation beneath his new contract for the Boston Bruins. However the decline in his efficiency during the last two years raises some severe purple flags that he’ll dwell as much as the greenback quantity the Bruins paid him. Lindholm’s manufacturing has slipped in every of the final two seasons from 82 to 64 factors in 2022-23 and simply 44 factors this previous season.
However it’s not solely Lindholm’s manufacturing that has slipped. His underlying metrics have fallen off a cliff, too. His xGAR has decreased from 22.4 to 4.6 to minus-9 during the last three seasons, lining up together with his precise GAR falling from 22.1, 7, and minus-4.5:
Is Lindholm as dangerous a participant as he was this previous season? Most likely not, nevertheless it’s laborious to examine a state of affairs the place he lives as much as the $7.75 million cap hit the Bruins paid him. The hope is that he clicks with David Pastrnak and refinds his recreation once more, however that’s removed from a certainty.
5. Seth Jones
Contract: 6 years remaining, $9.5 million cap hit
Seth Jones has been higher than I assumed he would for the Chicago Blackhawks, however he’s not near a $9.5 million defenseman proper now. His manufacturing during the last three seasons — 45 factors per 82 video games — has been strong, however that’s partly inflated on account of a 51-point season he had in his first 12 months with the Blackhawks earlier than his extension kicked in.
Since then, Jones hasn’t totaled greater than 37 factors in a season. I’d guess that’s partly as a result of the Blackhawks stripped it all the way down to the bolts to rebuild. However even then, Jones has not lived as much as the large extension former GM Stan Bowman gave him earlier than getting fired.
Jones’ play has been price a complete GAR of 16.7 and a WAR of two.8 during the last three seasons. He’s been completely high-quality, however that’s not price $9.5 million yearly. Nobody would point out something about his contract if he have been making $5-6 million a 12 months, however that’s not the case. Maybe he’ll come nearer to his deal’s worth because the Blackhawks transfer ahead with their rebuild and begin competing. However there’s an extended method to go earlier than that involves fruition.
4. Tom Wilson
Contract: 7 years remaining, $6.5 million cap hit
Tom Wilson’s recreation has began to drop off in recent times, however that didn’t appear to matter to the Washington Capitals. They re-signed him to a seven-year extension price $45.5 million that can kick in for this coming season. However sadly for the Capitals, Wilson’s play is already not price $6.5 million yearly. And he’ll seemingly proceed to say no, given the bruising model of hockey he performs.
Wilson was nonetheless a high-end top-six winger in 2021-22, ending with a GAR of 13.8 and a WAR of two.4, nevertheless it’s solely been downhill since then. He ended the 2022-23 season with a GAR of minus-0.8 and a WAR of minus-0.1. And that solely slid additional this previous season, as he totaled a GAR of minus-6 and a WAR of minus-1.
It’s one factor to have a down season like he did in 2022-23, however when the outcomes spiral additional downward the next 12 months, that ought to elevate severe considerations. And the factor is, Wilson’s extension solely begins this coming season. The Capitals had offseason and could be a wild-card crew within the Japanese Convention in 2024-25, however Wilson’s contract will seemingly trigger huge complications sooner somewhat than later.
3. Pierre-Luc Dubois
Contract: 7 years remaining, $8.5 million cap hit
Is it a stretch to say the Los Angeles Kings’ commerce for Pierre-Luc Dubois is likely one of the worst of all time? Solely a 12 months after buying him from the Winnipeg Jets and giving up Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, and Rasmus Kupari, the Kings traded Dubois and his huge eight-year, $68 million contract to the Capitals.
I don’t blame the Kings for eager to get out of that contract, both. Dubois didn’t have season with the Kings, totaling 16 targets and 40 factors in 82 video games. He completed with a GAR of minus-0.6 and a WAR of minus-0.1, so he was definitely nowhere close to an $8.5 million participant.
The factor is, Dubois was an excellent ahead earlier than getting dealt to the Kings. He averaged a GAR of 12.85, a WAR of two.2, and 65 factors per 82 video games in his earlier two seasons with the Winnipeg Jets. Nonetheless, I’d argue that even at his peak, Dubois just isn’t an $8.5 million participant, and that’s an issue for the Capitals. He appears like rebound candidate for 2024-25, however a 60-65 level participant just isn’t price $8.5 million yearly to me. So even when he rebounds, this contract is unlikely to age nicely.
2. Chandler Stephenson
Contract: 7 years, $6.25 million cap hit
Am I being harsh to gamers who haven’t even performed video games on their new contracts? Perhaps, however the Seattle Kraken might not have executed themselves any favors by signing Chandler Stephenson in free company to a seven-year deal price $6.25 million yearly.
Stephenson was a strong second-line middle in his time with the Vegas Golden Knights, averaging 63 factors per 82 video games during the last three seasons. You would possibly suppose this contract doesn’t look so dangerous, however there have been some considerations together with his recreation this previous season.
Stephenson completed with a complete GAR of minus-6.6 and a WAR of minus-1.1. He struggled with lots of the issues he did nicely in his earlier two seasons with the Golden Knights, and he’s shifting to a much less gifted crew within the Kraken. He can nonetheless skate, in order that’s a optimistic signal, however his play this previous season is a purple flag suggesting this contract might go downhill in a short time.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau
Contract: 7 years, $10.5 million cap hit
Jonathan Huberdeau taking the highest spot right here isn’t a lot of a shock. After a profession 12 months wherein he totaled 115 factors with the Florida Panthers in 2021-22, he has not lived as much as the large contract that former Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving gave him when he acquired Huberdeau in the Matthew Tkachuk commerce two summers in the past.
Huberdeau has simply 107 factors mixed throughout 160 video games with the Flames. It’s not unusual for a participant to battle in his first season with a brand new crew, however the truth that his scoring woes continued for a second 12 months is an ominous signal for some of the costly gamers within the NHL.
At this level, Huberdeau returning to a 100-point participant is a pipe dream. Even turning into a point-per-game participant looks like a stretch. The Flames are retooling and are unlikely to make any noise within the Western Convention this coming season, in order that doesn’t bode nicely for Huberdeau regaining a few of his type, both. However even when the Flames have been adequate to be playoff contenders, Huberdeau’s greatest days could be behind him. He’s 31 and is unlikely to get higher from right here on out, giving the Flames a $10.5 million drawback they’re seemingly caught with.
Honorable Mentions
A few goalies simply missed the reduce right here in John Gibson and Philipp Grubauer. Whereas they every most likely had case of being within the prime 10, goalies’ future outcomes are the toughest to foretell, though their current outcomes have been fairly poor.
Johnny Gaudreau is one other 50-point season away from having a top-10 dangerous contract, whereas Josh Norris has been hampered by accidents, hurting his worth ($7.95 million cap hit). On the optimistic facet, some dangerous offers are solely season away from leaving an inventory corresponding to this, so the NHL’s worst contracts might have a really totally different look a 12 months from now.
John Gibson, Philipp Grubauer, Brendan Gallagher, Johnny Gaudreau, Josh Norris
