Hypothesis concerning a possible offseason commerce of Nolan Arenado kicked up the second president of baseball operations John Mozeliak introduced the membership would take a step again and deal with participant growth and that they had been starting a transitional course of that might see Chaim Bloom take over as president of baseball operations starting subsequent offseason. Unsurprisingly, that announcement was rapidly adopted by experiences that the Cardinals certainly deliberate to gauge the marketplace for curiosity in Arenado.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Submit-Dispatch now experiences that, to nobody’s shock, the Cardinals have spent the early levels of the offseason doing simply that. He provides one important ingredient, writing that Arenado has not particularly requested to be traded. That’s a key wrinkle within the saga, because it differs from the final time Arenado was traded. The then-Rockies third baseman was pissed off within the years following his preliminary extension in Colorado, because the workforce hadn’t put collectively a aggressive roster. Given the circumstances resulting in his final commerce, it was solely honest to wonder if Arenado would possibly waive his no-trade clause to attempt to facilitate a commerce to a workforce with extra of a win-now mentality than the 2025 Cardinals may have. That doesn’t look like the case at the moment.
It’s nonetheless attainable, in fact, that Arenado may very well be on the transfer sooner or later this winter. Whereas he apparently has not particularly requested a commerce, there’s concurrently no indication that he’s voiced a desire to stay with the Cardinals by way of their reset interval (as teammates Willson Contreras and Sonny Grey, who even have no-trade clauses, reportedly have accomplished). Arenado’s authentic motivation in pursuing a commerce from the Rockies and his choice to forgo the opt-out in his contract following the 2021 season stemmed from a want to place down roots in a perennially aggressive setting.
If the Playing cards discover a deal to their liking that might ship him to a transparent win-now workforce, they’d seemingly current him with the situation and he’d then need to weigh the deserves of approving a deal. However, that’s a far totally different situation than Arenado asking to be moved and the strain that might placed on Mozeliak, Bloom and the remainder of the entrance workplace to discover a deal or head into the season with a veteran who’s clearly sad to be on the roster.
Arenado, 34 in April, has had consecutive underwhelming seasons on the plate. He’s posted a stable however unremarkable .269/.320/.426 slash (104 wRC+) since Opening Day 2023, placing out in solely 15.5% of his plate appearances but in addition strolling at a tepid 6.8% clip. Regardless of all of the accolades he’s amassed in his profession, he’s by no means been a constant supply of premium contact (no less than by measure of exit velocity, barrel charge and hard-hit charge). Nonetheless, he posted career-low marks in all of these classes this previous season, together with a very mild 3.2% barrel charge and 31.2% hard-hit charge.
That stated, Arenado stays no less than a mean hitter with plus bat-to-ball expertise and a premium glove on the scorching nook. His defensive rankings aren’t as lofty as they had been when the six-time Platinum Glove winner was extensively thought to be maybe the perfect defensive participant in Main League Baseball, no matter place. Nonetheless, he nonetheless posted emphatically constructive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Common (9). Arenado’s 9 errors this yr tied for his career-low mark in a 162-game season. He’s as surehanded as they arrive, and although his arm power (by measure of Statcast) has continued to dip in current seasons, his vary stays elite.
As lately as 2022, Arenado was an MVP finalist who posted a .293/.358/.533 batting line with 30 homers and elite glovework. Even when he can’t return to these heights, he’s an above-average participant on a contract that doesn’t precisely pay him like a famous person anyhow. Arenado is owed $74MM over the following three seasons, however the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in each 2025 and 2026).
It’s a frontloaded deal — he’s owed $32MM, $27MM and $15MM within the subsequent three seasons — so maybe the hefty 2025 wage ($27MM after the Rockies’ contributions) may very well be a pause for some events. Then again, a big-payroll membership that’s accustomed to paying the posh tax won’t balk an excessive amount of at Arenado’s efficient $21.33MM common annual worth, for tax functions. His remaining assure and the related AAV are usually according to what good however non-superstar free brokers like Christian Walker and Teoscar Hernandez are anticipated to command.
Goold notes that the Cardinals don’t really feel any monetary strain at this level to shed the deal. They’ve already scaled again payroll fairly a bit and will accomplish that with additional trades of shorter-term gamers. As such, they may not be compelled to easily transfer Arenado to a workforce that’s keen to soak up the contract however provide minimal prospects.
On the identical time, if the Cardinals’ lack of economic strain means they’d be comfy paying down a few of that remaining wage, they might in impact purchase a greater return. Overlaying even one-third of the contract would render Arenado priced comparably to the three years and $45MM that Jeimer Candelario secured in free company final winter. Loads of golf equipment is perhaps intrigued in that situation. It’s finally Arenado’s name, because of that no-trade safety, however so far he’s not forcing the workforce’s hand.
