The St. Louis Blues made probably the most surprising strikes of the 2024 offseason to this point after they despatched supply sheets to Edmonton Oilers RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. These two signings put the Oilers in a really tough place given the groups’ cap construction. Now, not too long ago appointed common supervisor Stan Bowman must make the primary two selections of his tenure. Whereas further strikes are essential to make the wage work for the explanation, the Oilers should match Holloway’s contract, let Broberg depart, and work out the remainder later.
Retaining Holloway is a No Brainer
There’s a sturdy consensus opinion amongst Oilers followers that matching Holloway’s two-year, $2,290,457 annual common (AAV) is a no brainer. The 22-year-old confirmed he was able to becoming a member of the group in a full-time capability final season. Moreover, with the departure of Ryan McLeod, there’s a clear opening within the Oilers’ backside six for Holloway to get constant ice time.
As nicely, Holloway’s contract would solely yield a third-round choose as compensation if the Oilers don’t match. Whereas he’s not important to the group’s success this season, his age, positional worth, skillset, and upside are far too beneficial to lose for only a third-round choose. The choose, which might be the Blues’ 2025 third-round choose, wouldn’t return a participant of equal worth in a midseason commerce nor wouldn’t it be prone to land a participant of Holloway’s caliber if the choice is maintained. Even when the Oilers made this draft alternative, the prospect wouldn’t see the NHL for a minimum of 4 or 5 extra seasons, rendering them ineffective within the Connor McDavid period.
Broberg Should Be Let Go
At 23 years outdated, the story is much from written for Broberg. He has proven spectacular flashes in latest seasons, and regardless of progressing slower than anticipated, Oilers followers have held optimism that he might nonetheless develop right into a top-four defenseman. Whereas I agree he can nonetheless grow to be a top-four defenseman, I don’t consider Edmonton would be the place the place he’ll attain this potential.
Associated: Each NHL Workforce’s Breakout Candidate in 2024-25
Broberg significantly struggled final season regardless of many followers claiming he had a powerful playoff. In his playoff run, he had a 43.4 xG%, in line with MoneyPuck. That is largely guilty on his utilization as a right-defenseman as an alternative of his typical left-side duties, however this is a matter that was not going to go away this season.
The Oilers have Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak signed to play the left facet, and simply Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci as right-handed lineup regulars. Broberg is younger and inexperienced, and his regarding efficiency as a right-handed defenseman supplies no motive to consider this season will probably be any totally different.
The Blues are present process a retool and might afford to be affected person by means of Broberg’s struggles, whereas the Oilers are in a “Cup or Bust” season. Holding onto Broberg would drive head coach Kris Knoblauch to spend power on growing Broberg whereas the group is concentrated on successful video games, a transparent recipe for catastrophe.
With Broberg’s two-year, $4,580,917 AAV contract, the Oilers would obtain the Blues 2025 second-round choose as compensation. Not solely is Broberg’s capability and utilization a large query mark heading into the season, however that cap hit is a large concern. To be getting paid that a lot cash, the Oilers higher be getting a top-four defenseman, and there may be completely no motive to consider Broberg is at that stage — a minimum of not but.
As nicely, a second-round choose is a good asset so as to add to the Oilers arsenal. The highest-six is robust however issues with Evander Kane’s well being create uncertainty within the ahead core, and the protection has a whole lot of query marks surrounding Nurse and Ceci. With the group’s 2025 first-round choose gone, including a second-rounder will permit Bowman so as to add essential items on the 2025 Commerce Deadline.
The second-round choose the Oilers will obtain is kind of beneficial. In a stronger-than-normal Central Division, the Blues might rapidly be a part of the underside 10 groups within the NHL. As nicely, second-round picks are usually beneficial at commerce deadlines.
In 2023 the New York Rangers acquired Patrick Kane for a second-round choose and different small property. That very same 12 months the Winnipeg Jets landed Nino Niederreiter for only a second-rounder. In 2022 the Penguins landed Rickard Rakell for a second-rounder and two depth items after the Toronto Maple Leafs landed Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano from the Seattle Kraken in a bundle containing two second-round picks. The record goes on, with second-rounders proving to be beneficial 12 months after 12 months.
Sunk Value Fallacy
Even with Broberg’s worth being increased than a second-round choose, the Oilers should overcome the sunk price fallacy and let him depart. The Sunk Value Fallacy is a “tendency to comply with by means of on one thing that we’ve already invested closely in (be it time, cash, effort, emotional power, and so forth.), even when giving up is clearly a greater concept.” Broberg is overpaid, and holding onto what he “may very well be” regardless of all indicators pointing to him persevering with to underwhelm whereas being overpaid could be a borderline insane choice for the Oilers to make. That is in no way saying he’s a foul participant — as a result of he’s not — however given the Oilers’ rivalry window, paying a lot cash for a large query mark could be a catastrophe.
Oilers’ Future Offseasons
The Oilers’ selections on these two supply sheets should think about future selections, too. With Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard free brokers within the 2025 offseason, including Broberg’s excessive cap hit within the 2025-26 season would put the already salary-tight Oilers in a fair harder scenario.
At finest Broberg’s contract could be truthful worth, however even then the Oilers could be compelled to bundle Kulak or Ceci with further property to create essential cap house. At worst, the group could be paying Broberg over $4.5 million to be their seventh defenseman.
It’s also vital to notice why matching every supply sheet and buying and selling one, or each, of the gamers doesn’t make sense. The NHL is a enterprise and this choice would set a harmful precedent and upset gamers. Though the Oilers weren’t those to barter these contracts, buying and selling a participant instantly after signing them, with out their approval, could be catastrophic in future negotiations. Groups, brokers, and gamers know to not take these strikes personally, and whereas the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens feud a couple of seasons again made followers assume there may be unhealthy blood following supply sheets or strikes of this nature, that’s not the case.
In 2010, then-Chicago Blackhawk Niklas Hjalmarsson signed a four-year supply sheet with the San Jose Sharks. The contract was matched and he proceeded to win two Stanley Cups in Chicago. He did what he needed to do to earn a good wage, and the Blackhawks did what they needed to do to remain aggressive. There will probably be no unhealthy blood within the Oilers locker room, whatever the group’s selections, and it’s extremely unlikely the Oilers will submit retaliatory supply sheets for future Blues’ gamers. It is a enterprise, and everybody treats it that method.
With simply six extra days for the Oilers to decide, anticipate a number of roster gamers to be talked about in commerce rumors. Nothing must be finalized quickly, however will probably be simpler to make the strikes essential to release cap house now than within the ultimate days of the preseason.
