On the Origin of Excessive Draft Picks

The Cleveland Guardians made historical past on the Fort Price Stockyards on Sunday evening, drafting Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana first total. I planted my flag on Bazzana Island again in February, and famous that he may turn out to be the primary Australian participant drafted no. 1 total, in addition to the primary participant born and raised wherever apart from the U.S. or its dependencies. Keith Legislation identified that as a result of no. 2 total decide Chase Burns was born in Italy (although raised in Tennessee), 2024 marked the primary time that each of the highest two picks had been born outdoors the U.S.

Had the Guardians chosen College of Georgia third baseman Charlie Condon, a special form of historical past may’ve been made. Condon would’ve been the third no. 1 total decide from Marietta, Georgia, after Dansby Swanson and Kris Benson, which might’ve on condition that metropolis of some 60,000 individuals the excellence of being the one municipality in America to provide three no. 1 total picks.

Why ought to anybody care? I concede I can’t make a compelling argument. I personally solely seen the Condon connection for 2 causes: First, my inexhaustible thirst for data of ineffective trivia, significantly because it considerations beginner baseball. I’ve been making an attempt to decide to reminiscence the alma mater of each college-educated main leaguer. You already know, for enjoyable. That is enjoyable for me.

Second, my spouse is from Marietta, and so I’ve spent many an evening sleeping beneath the watchful eye of the Massive Rooster.

The Massive Rooster is a 56-foot-tall signal that sits atop the KFC on Cobb Parkway. It has rotating googly eyes and a beak that opens and closes. But it surely doesn’t shut all the way in which. It used to, however precise birds would sit on the underside, um, jaw, I suppose you’d name it, and get squished when the Massive Rooster’s mouth would shut. It’s a landmark within the northern suburbs of Atlanta, Cobb County’s reply to the Eiffel Tower or the Sagrada Família, and a likeness of it hangs in my house.

However I digress.

Condon ended up not going no. 1 total, leaving Marietta tied with San Diego and close by Atlanta because the main producers of no. 1 draft picks. However, my curiosity was piqued. I requested myself: The place do high picks come from?

So I put collectively an inventory of the origins of each top-five decide within the draft period — precisely 300 of them — in addition to their alma maters and hometowns. A lot of the data got here from Baseball Reference, although sometimes I needed to flip to Baseball Dice to search out the highschool of a faculty draftee from the olden days.

Each websites normally listing each a participant’s birthplace and highschool location, however the idea of a “hometown” is a bit nebulous. I used the latter information level — location of the participant’s highschool — as a proxy for hometown. It’s not an ideal system. Some households transfer round quite a bit, whereas many highschool baseball gamers stay in a single municipality however attend faculty in one other, both as a result of they go to non-public faculty or as a result of they attend a public faculty with a big catchment space. But it surely’s higher to be constant, and this data was available for nearly all gamers.

I did override this within the uncommon circumstances the place the varsity was residential and I knew the participant’s precise hometown, and there have been a pair cases the place no highschool was listed on any web site; in these eventualities I defaulted to the participant’s birthplace. There are additionally two gamers — Danny Goodwin and J.D. Drew — who had been drafted within the high 5 twice. I counted their choices individually for the needs of evaluating highschool and school choices, however not for the needs of crediting their hometowns — Peoria, Illinois, and Valdosta, Georgia, respectively — with producing a number of high picks. (There have been additionally two completely different gamers named Matt Williams, one in all whom is the man you’ve heard of.)

So what did I be taught?

For starters, within the historical past of the draft, the break up between highschool and school gamers within the top-five picks is sort of even.

The 2 juco gamers are Bryce Harper and Alex Fernandez. Fernandez is listed as a four-year participant on B-Ref, in all probability as a result of his alma mater, Miami Dade Faculty, was Miami-Dade Neighborhood Faculty when he transferred there. Fernandez was drafted twenty fourth total out of highschool in 1988, went to the College of Miami for a yr, after which transferred to MDCC so he may get again within the draft a yr early. The White Sox, who picked him fourth, introduced him to the majors in his draft yr after simply eight minor league begins, so all of it labored out.

I remembered that Fernandez and Harper are the one two juco gamers to win the Golden Spikes Award (talking of ineffective beginner baseball trivia), so I spent extra time than I’d have preferred monitoring down what yr MDCC changed into a four-year establishment and confirming that it was after Fernandez left. I didn’t discover some other comparable conditions amongst top-five picks in B-Ref’s database.

Fernandez and Harper went to juco as a way to get into the draft early, and three of the 4 top-five picks from unbiased ball all went that route due to signing hangups. Drew, Luke Hochevar, and Kumar Rocker had been all first-round school picks, didn’t signal for no matter purpose, and as a substitute of returning to high school performed in indy ball till the following draft got here round. The fourth indy ball decide was Ariel Prieto, one of many first gamers to come back to the U.S. from Cuba post-embargo. As a result of Prieto got here on to america, he was topic to the draft, which is one purpose why Cuban defectors within the years since have tended to ascertain residency elsewhere earlier than signing with an enormous league crew.

The stability between highschool and school draftees within the high 5 is a brand new factor, and it’s not going to final lengthy. For a number of causes — NIL, the switch portal, the truncation of each the draft and the minors — the highest of the draft has turn out to be exceptionally college-heavy within the 2020s.

Over the previous 10 years, there have been 31 top-five picks from four-year faculties, in opposition to simply 18 excessive schoolers and one indy ball participant, Rocker, who should depend as a university decide. Over the previous 5 drafts, it’s been 16 school gamers in opposition to eight excessive schoolers, plus Rocker. This yr, the highest 5 — the highest eight, really — had been all from four-year faculties.

However which four-year faculties, you may ask?

Now, every of those colleges represents a second in time. Arizona State was as soon as the dominant program within the nation. (These eight top-five picks for the Solar Devils don’t embrace Barry Bonds, the no. 6 total decide in 1985.) Within the first 14 drafts, ASU produced 5 top-five picks, together with three who went first total. However Spencer Torkelson is the one top-five decide this system has had previously 30 drafts.

Wichita State was once the dominant program within the Midwest: Between 1981 and 1996, the Shockers went to seven Faculty World Sequence, received a nationwide championship in 1989, and produced 4 top-five picks. They haven’t been again to Omaha since, and have just one top-five decide (Alec Bohm) over the previous 25 years. 4 of Rice’s 5 top-five picks got here in a 10-year interval that additionally included this system’s solely nationwide title.

Vanderbilt, in the meantime, has had seven top-five picks, not counting Rocker, all since 2007. 4 of LSU’s 5 top-five picks have come since 2012, together with the 1-2 punch of Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews final yr.

The draft has been round a very long time, in brief, and school baseball empires rise and fall.

All advised, 38 establishments have had two or extra top-five picks drafted straight from that faculty. These are principally four-year faculties, however not completely. 13 excessive colleges have produced a number of top-five picks, together with gamers who stopped in school first. Notre Dame Excessive College of Sherman Oaks, California, is the one highschool to provide three.

So what jumps out, clearly, is that Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin went to the identical highschool, as did Joe Mauer and Paul Molitor. And should you actually need your mind wrinkled, Mauer and Molitor each retired with a profession batting common of .306. The third top-five pick of St. Paul, Minnesota, is Dave Winfield, who went to public faculty. However because of Molitor and Winfield, Marlins pitcher Max Meyer appears doomed to be the primary participant to attend the College of Minnesota, get drafted within the first 5 picks, and fail to succeed in 3,000 profession hits. Poor child. (The Upton brothers graduated from completely different excessive colleges, for individuals who sense an apparent absence right here.)

You’ll discover that not one however two San Diego excessive colleges have produced a number of top-five picks. San Diego is probably the most prolific metropolis in America for producing draft picks at that degree.

And if something, this listing undersells San Diego’s declare to the title of Draftville, USA. The town’s universities have produced 4 extra top-five picks — Kris Bryant and Brian Matusz from the College of San Diego, Stephen Strasburg and Travis Lee from San Diego State — none of whom went to highschool within the metropolis.

After which there are gamers from the varied suburbs. I thought of consolidating picks into areas, for example to roll Atlanta and its varied extremities into one metro space. However after I thought of doing that for the large cities out west, I noticed that all the things I find out about Southern California geography comes from Loopy Ex-Girlfriend, so I’ve zero clue which cities are close to Los Angeles versus Anaheim versus San Diego.

As a compromise, I provide this listing of states with 10 or extra top-five picks.

Shock, shock, it’s an inventory of probably the most populous states within the union, with Georgia punching above its weight.

Even with 300 picks to select from, not each state has put a participant within the high 5: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming have all been blanked. (Three top-five picks attended the College of Arkansas, whereas one other went to BYU, however none of these gamers had been natives of both Arkansas or Utah.)

And it’s not simply because California, Texas, Florida, and Georgia hogged all of the home expertise. 5 jurisdictions that aren’t U.S. states have put a participant within the high 5 within the draft: Cuba (Prieto), New South Wales (Bazzana), British Columbia (Adam Loewen), the District of Columbia (Danny Hultzen), and Puerto Rico (Carlos Correa).

So what’s the takeaway? Prime draft picks come from states with large populations and heat climate. Except for that scintillating and novel bit of knowledge, Marietta has to get extra prospects within the pipeline if it needs to catch San Diego. The Massive Rooster has the ability to grant miracles, nevertheless it’s hungry for expertise and have to be fed.