After this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs should make maybe probably the most impactful choice on their future: ought to they re-sign famous person winger Mitch Marner, ex-captain John Tavares, each, or neither? With the Maple Leafs’ cap state of affairs tumultuous at finest, administration should consider every participant’s impression and provide you with an inventory of execs and cons to make sure they make the proper choice. With that in thoughts, right here’s a have a look at the Maple Leafs’ finest plan of action.
Evaluating Marner’s Influence on the Maple Leafs
Since he was drafted fourth general in 2015, Marner has established himself as one of many league’s premier wingers. Starting in 2018-19, he has scored 533 factors in 436 video games – a year-by-year full-season tempo of 100 factors. On high of that, his underlying stats have been persistently elite. Aside from his rookie season, he has but to report a season during which his anticipated targets share (xGF%) was beneath 52.5%. In actual fact, during the last 5 seasons, his xGF% has averaged out to just about 57%.
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This season, Marner has been the Maple Leafs’ finest participant. He leads the workforce in factors with 24, is fourth on the workforce in xGF% (56.81%), and is second in each scoring probability share (SCF%) and high-danger scoring probability share (HDCF%). His xGF% ranks thirteenth within the league amongst forwards who’ve performed at the very least 250 minutes of 5v5 hockey, above Mikko Rantanen, Sam Reinhart, and David Pastrnak.
He has excelled on each particular groups as nicely, with 10 factors on the person benefit and a shorthanded objective. In response to IneffectiveMath, the Maple Leafs are additionally producing 10% extra offence than the league common on the ability play when Marner is on the ice and permitting 1% much less offence in opposition to than the league common on the penalty kill.
The one drawback with selecting Marner over Tavares is the fee. At 27 years previous, he ought to elite manufacturing for at the very least the subsequent six seasons or so. He has outproduced William Nylander by a comparatively vital margin, and Nylander was given an eight-year, $11.5 million AAV contract final season. It’s not unreasonable to imagine that Marner’s subsequent contract will push $12 million AAV and be at max size. The caveat is that the NHL wage cap will enhance considerably, so it shouldn’t be as a lot of successful as it will be now.
John Tavares is Cheaper, however Much less Impactful
In the meantime, Tavares is within the last 12 months of his seven-year, $11 million AAV deal. He has been productive for the Maple Leafs, scoring a few level per sport each season whereas offering the workforce with sturdy management. He has additionally sported an xGF% of between 52% and 56% in each season since he was signed in 2018-19, together with 54.97%, ranked seventh on the workforce this season. He has been a dependable drive on the ability play however doesn’t play on the penalty kill.
The issue with Tavares is his price ticket. At 34, there has already been a noticeable decline in his foot velocity all through his contract. Sure, his impression remains to be stable, however growing old curves typically present that, aside from an excessive outlier, there’s a steep dropoff in high quality of play at this level in a participant’s profession. Contemplating veteran Steven Stamkos was simply handed a contract price $8 million yearly — and that the 2 have comparable level manufacturing — it’s cheap to imagine Tavares’ subsequent contract will probably be about that worth.
Maple Leafs Ought to Prioritize Marner
If I have been normal supervisor Brad Treliving, I might prioritize extending Marner’s tenure in Toronto since it will likely be unattainable to re-sign each gamers. The criticism he’s acquired from the Maple Leafs fanbase has largely been reactionary and stems extra from frustration with administration signing 4 gamers for over $10 million than Marner not being definitely worth the eight-figure wage.
He has confirmed himself as one of many league’s finest wingers, and only a few gamers can declare they’re higher at that place. Tavares, in the meantime, is growing old — and exhibiting it — all whereas taking over more cash than he’s price. The pay reduce he’ll must take to stay in Toronto is probably going too vital for him to remain, so it will likely be higher for the Maple Leafs to let him stroll to a different workforce that may pay him the $8 million-plus he’ll be asking for.
