Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is having the least-productive season of his storied large league profession, however the soon-to-be 37-year-old made clear to MLB.com’s John Denton that he has each intention of constant his profession in 2025. The seven-time All-Star was named the Nationwide League MVP as just lately as 2022, however he’s seen a notable drop-off in just about each offensive class in 2024 — to the purpose the place he for the primary time in his profession has been a below-average hitter (99 wRC+, 96 OPS+).
On the season, Goldschmidt carries only a .244/.302/.410 batting line. He’s nonetheless popped 20 house runs, however his 27.2% strikeout fee and seven.3% stroll charges are the worst of his profession. To his credit score, Goldschmidt has righted the ship of late; over his previous 150 plate appearances, he’s slashing a much-improved .295/.342/.532 (141 wRC+). He’s nonetheless not strolling anyplace close to his profession 12.7% fee (6.3% throughout this sizzling streak), however he’s minimize his strikeout fee (23.3%) to be nearer to his profession ranges.
Goldschmidt made no excuses concerning his struggles this 12 months, noting that even spite of stable batted-ball and working metrics by way of Statcast, “there’s no denying I haven’t performed effectively.” The five-time Silver Slugger winner acknowledged that his struggles have “created some dangerous habits” along with his swing which were arduous to interrupt. Followers of each the Cardinals and Goldschmidt will wish to try the interview in full, as Goldschmidt provides candid critiques of a down season on the plate. Denton additionally spoke with supervisor Oli Marmol who stated he “loves” Goldschmidt when requested a few potential reunion for the upcoming 2025 season.
Clearly, that received’t be Marmol’s name on the finish of the day. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak initially acquired Goldschmidt from the D-backs (in alternate for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andrew Younger and a 2019 aggressive steadiness draft decide the D-backs used to pick out Dominic Fletcher, whom they traded to amass righty Christian Mena this previous offseason). The Cardinals shortly prolonged Goldschmidt on a five-year, $130MM contract, and he’s taking part in out the ultimate season of what’s confirmed to be a great deal for the membership in the meanwhile.
The Cardinals reportedly have some curiosity in bringing Goldschmidt again, however there are in-house choices to contemplate as effectively. Twenty-five-year-old Alec Burleson opened the season with two months of roughly common offense on the plate earlier than catching fireplace in the summertime. He’s now hitting .280/.320/.453 on the season general. Burleson has primarily served as a nook outfielder and designated hitter in 2024, however he’s not a robust defender within the outfield. A transfer to first base may very well be of profit, significantly if the Cardinals envision one other shaky defender, Jordan Walker, because the staff’s proper fielder in future seasons.
There’s additionally 27-year-old Luken Baker to contemplate. Whereas he’s older than the usual “prospect,” Baker bashed 33 house runs in simply 84 Triple-A video games in 2023 and has swatted one other 32 large flies in 108 Triple-A video games this season. He’s but to hit in his tiny pattern of 126 large league plate appearances (.202/.325/.356, 30.2% strikeout fee), however Baker’s Triple-A observe report of hitting for energy is intriguing. On the very least, his right-handed bat might pair with the lefty-swinging Burleson to type a platoon, with each gamers additionally seeing a while at designated hitter. Baker has decimated lefties this season, posting a 1.142 OPS and homering in 15 of his 150 plate appearances towards them.
A Goldschmidt reunion would restrict the taking part in time for each Burleson and Baker. It’d be comprehensible if the Playing cards’ entrance workplace needed to take no matter assets could be put towards a Goldschmidt deal and reallocate them to pitching assist. On the identical time, if the Playing cards consider the late surge from Goldschmidt is a portent for a rebound in 2025, then re-signing him on a short-term deal has apparent enchantment.
From a payroll vantage level, there’s a compelling case to make use of the assets elsewhere. The Cardinals’ payroll has landed inside a pair million {dollars} of $180MM in every of the previous two seasons ($183MM in 2024), and per RosterResource, they’ve about $111MM on subsequent 12 months’s books already. That doesn’t embody selections on the matching $12MM choices on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, nor does it embody arbitration raises for Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, John King, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Andre Pallante and Nolan Gorman.
Even at a presumably decreased fee from his present $26MM annual wage, Goldschmidt would seemingly nonetheless push the Cardinals north of $150MM (assuming arb raises for all the class and simply a type of two rotation choices being picked up) earlier than addressing another potential offensive upgrades or beginning pitching additions. That cash might arguably be higher spent specializing in different areas and turning first base over to a mixture of Burleson and Baker — or maybe merely a lower-cost free agent possibility (e.g. Carlos Santana).
Goldschmidt’s future is one among a number of key selections for the Cardinals as they appear to place disappointing 2023-24 seasons behind them. Final 12 months’s membership went 71-91, ending final place within the NL Central. At 69-69, they’ll end higher than that in 2024, however they’re 5.5 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot with solely 24 video games to play, making a postseason berth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as effectively. That will be their first consecutive postseason misses since a three-year absence from playoff play in 2016-18 and mark simply the third time for the reason that flip of the century that St. Louis has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
