One of many main undoings for the Philadelphia Flyers final season was their goaltending. With a number of the worst numbers in that division within the league, a promising marketing campaign turned a nook on the last hour, and the Flyers simply barely missed out on playoff hockey. With some new names in 2024-25, the scenario could possibly be a lot better this time round. However how?
The Flyers’ Goaltending Can Solely Enhance
Just lately, I talked about how the Flyers’ league-worst energy play final season took about 20 targets off of the board for them had they simply been common (which is kind of a 20 p.c conversion charge). Equally, the goaltending hampered their potential—they’d top-of-the-line defenses within the NHL.
Associated: Matvei Michkov Can Take Flyers’ Energy Play to the Subsequent Degree
Whereas the Flyers’ between-the-pipes play isn’t actually destined to be higher, it’s doubtless that they see enchancment. Maybe, that could possibly be drastic. They allowed the seventh-fewest anticipated targets within the NHL (234.85), which means that, with common netminders, they might have theoretically given up proper round 235 targets. Nonetheless, they allowed 258—a complete 23.15 extra than anticipated. Mixed with a futile man benefit, the crew was crushed.
Following Jan. 18, the Orange and Black had the sixth-best protection within the league when it comes to anticipated targets. The one subject was that they’d a .852 save share (SV%), permitting 4 to 6 extra targets per 100 pictures than principally each crew within the NHL. Goaltending (amongst different issues, in fact) successfully price Philadelphia an opportunity on the playoffs, because the crew misplaced 9 of their final 11 contests and was eradicated in a down-to-the-wire race on April 16.
Whereas the Flyers are operating it again with a couple of of the identical faces, that’s not as unhealthy because it sounds. There’s some room for progress right here, except for the truth that their total .884 crew SV% appears unsustainable.
For starters, let’s get to the Flyers’ main goaltenders. Sam Ersson and Ivan Fedotov are virtually absolutely the 2 males who will guard the web at some point of the season, barring accidents or incompetence.
Ersson is the clear-cut starter right here, and he’s an attention-grabbing case. On one hand, the 24-year-old was glorious for an honest portion of his 2023-24 marketing campaign. From Nov. 3 to Jan. 18, he was top-of-the-line within the enterprise, posting a .930 SV%, 1.82 goals-against common (GAA), a 12-3-2 document, and permitting 14.63 fewer targets than anticipated in 17 video games. Then again, he put up a .867 SV%, 3.39 GAA, an 11-17-5 document, and allowed 21.49 extra targets than anticipated in his different 34 appearances. This Swedish goaltender’s rookie marketing campaign was actually uncommon.
So, which model of Ersson will the Flyers get? The doubtless end result is that it’s neither, nevertheless it’s essential to focus on that season-long metrics can not outline his earlier marketing campaign. His story needs to be informed extra deeply—he could possibly be a lot better (or worse) than what the stats present.
With a much less chaotic scenario within the internet, I lean in a extra optimistic route with Ersson. He didn’t have many choices to take a heavy workload off of him in the previous few months of the season, resulting in his regression. If he doesn’t have to seem in 32 of Philadelphia’s last 38 video games once more (84.2 p.c) as a result of play behind him being even worse than his personal, that would go a great distance. However we’ll simply have to attend and see.
As for Fedotov, he’s as unpredictable as they get. The 27-year-old was drafted within the seventh spherical by the Orange and Black in 2015, and he spent the remainder of his profession in Russia main as much as his NHL debut. He performed quite a lot of skilled hockey, which has just lately been at certainly one of Europe’s largest phases, the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL).
Fedotov was a full-time KHL netminder from his 2019-20 marketing campaign up till final season. Under are his ranks percentile-wise in SV% among the many goaltenders with at the least 10 video games performed in every season, in accordance with QuantHockey:
- 2019-20: 77th percentile (.931 SV% in 32 video games)
- 2020-21: eighty fifth percentile (.925 SV% in 26 video games)
- 2021-22: 63rd percentile (.919 SV% in 26 video games)
- 2023-24: thirty fifth percentile (.914 SV% in 44 video games)
These numbers may not look all that spectacular, nevertheless it’s price noting that present NHL starter and doable future star, Pytor Kochetkov, peaked on the 82nd percentile in 2021-22 (.926 SV%). Whereas Fedotov doesn’t seem to have the upside of somebody like that, he very a lot has the potential to indicate he belongs within the NHL.
You might need seen how Fedotov’s 2022-23 marketing campaign didn’t seem right here, and he noticed an honest fall-off from 2021-22 to 2023-24. Nicely, he was detained for evading navy service between these seasons, resulting in not solely missed time and regression however extra time spent in Russia. You see, he was supposed to affix the Flyers proper after that end within the eighty fifth percentile for SV%, however the crew’s plans have been unexpectedly halted. Maybe his growth was stunted because of this.
At this level, we actually don’t know what Fedotov will appear like in 2024-25 and past. He’s beneath contract for this season and the subsequent, taking over a fairly hefty $3.275 million in opposition to the wage cap. Whereas underwhelming in a three-game pattern measurement throughout a brief stint with the Orange and Black, he has seemed higher (though not spectacular by any means) within the preseason.
Ersson and Fedotov might kind one of many worst goaltending duos within the league, however they is also fairly good. The uncertainty right here is each promising and worrying—they’re primarily boom-or-bust, by the appears of it. In the event that they’re simply common, that’d be a win, too.
Makiniemi & Kolosov Present Real Insurance coverage
As I discussed, the Flyers didn’t have a backup behind Ersson final season to take a number of the relentless workload away. Whereas they’ve Fedotov now, he might have some points between the pipes. If Philadelphia is in want of help, their emergency choices have rather more upside than what was current just some months in the past.
Eetu Makiniemi, who obtained a contract from the Flyers following a profitable skilled tryout (PTO) stint, seems to be the best choice behind Ersson and Fedotov. Simply 25, Makiniemi has an honest chunk of American Hockey League (AHL) expertise. Since 2021-22, he has a .906 SV% there, placing him within the 61st percentile for netminders with at the least 10 video games performed over the previous three seasons. So far as third-string choices go, he appears to be succesful—there ought to be hope for him if he’s known as upon. He’s not a full-time backup or something, however there’s some upside.
For months, it appeared as if Alexei Kolosov wouldn’t solely spend his total 2024-25 marketing campaign within the KHL (one thing that wasn’t speculated to occur) however probably be traded to a different crew. Out of the blue, he got here to the Flyers’ coaching camp and tensions have seemingly been resolved. If he and Philadelphia are certainly on the identical web page, that’s good news for the long run but in addition the current.
Kolosov was taken within the third spherical of the 2021 NHL Draft by the Flyers, however his potential is way larger than the place he was picked. Whereas he hasn’t put up dominant numbers within the KHL by any means, Kolosov is just 22 with over 100 video games in Russia’s finest league to his identify. He has by no means sunk beneath a .906 SV%, both, so he has proven developmental maturity for his age.
With high-end athleticism, Kolosov’s play might translate to the NHL virtually instantly. In my eyes, he tasks to be a terrific NHL starter sooner or later down the road anyway, so it wouldn’t be dangerous to have him get some video games in for the Flyers (at the least, in principle). In fact, this might be the worst-case situation, but when his providers are wanted and he’s accessible, he’s a much better selection than what the crew needed to decide between final season, being Cal Petersen and Felix Sandstrom.
Sandstrom is gone, however Petersen remains to be within the system. Sadly, I feel we’ve seen the final of him with the Flyers, although. After a disastrous preseason efficiency versus the Montreal Canadiens on Sept. 23 coupled with a number of the worst stats within the NHL over the previous few seasons, Petersen is simply not suited to face off in opposition to hockey’s prime athletes. I used to be keen to offer him extra time than most, however the probability for redemption has sailed. With two succesful AHL netminders already, I’m unsure he’ll even play there. Hopefully, he can rejuvenate his profession someplace (he’s nonetheless solely 29), nevertheless it most likely gained’t be in Philadelphia.
There are a couple of issues that the Flyers’ 2024-25 season hinges on, however goaltending is without doubt one of the massive ones. If all goes effectively, a enjoyable season could possibly be forward.
