At finest, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the outskirts of their leagues’ respective Wild Card races, and whereas each have been busy forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re geared in the direction of bettering for down the highway fairly than this season. On Sunday, the 2 groups got here collectively for a swap of club-controlled third basemen, with Isaac Paredes heading to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay together with a pair of pitching prospects, righties Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.
The 25-year-old Paredes isn’t any stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to Tigers on July 31, 2017 — when he was nonetheless in A-ball — alongside Jeimer Candelario in alternate for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being dealt to the Rays in April 2022, he’s developed into an efficient middle-of-the-lineup hitter. After receiving down-ballot MVP help for his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) efficiency final 12 months, he made his first All-Star group this 12 months, and is presently hitting .245/.357/.435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.
Regardless of that output, Paredes doesn’t hit the ball very onerous. His 85-mph common exit velocity ranks in simply the fourth percentile, whereas his 26.1% hard-hit charge is within the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel charge is within the twenty sixth percentile. However Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and notably at depositing them into the left discipline nook, which at Tropicana Area is nearer to dwelling plate (315 toes) than any present ballpark, since balls hit to Fenway Park’s Inexperienced Monster (310 toes away however with a 37-foot excessive wall) and Minute Maid’s Crawford Packing containers (315 toes away with a 21-foot excessive wall) each require higher elevation to get out. Getting into Sunday, Paredes’ 46 pulled fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the foremost league lead, with all 16 of his homers coming through that route.
Right here’s a have a look at his spray charts for the previous two seasons:
Because the begin of 2022, Paredes has the very best charge of pulled flies within the majors, however be aware that he’s not precisely scorching them:
Highest Fee of Pulled Fly Balls, 2022–24
| Participant | Pulled FB% | HR | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | EV (MPH) | Arduous Hit% | Barrel/BBE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | 51.3% | 65 | 1.957 | .892 | 1.007 | .473 | 93.3 | 53.8% | 29.4% |
| Joey Gallo | 49.0% | 31 | 1.883 | 1.597 | .986 | .830 | 100.6 | 77.9% | 46.8% |
| Albert Pujols | 48.7% | 15 | 1.676 | 1.334 | .874 | .701 | 98.0 | 70.3% | 43.2% |
| Matt Carpenter | 45.5% | 19 | 1.646 | 1.158 | .823 | .591 | 95.3 | 58.0% | 36.0% |
| Danny Jansen | 43.9% | 31 | 1.650 | 1.155 | .820 | .594 | 95.6 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Mike Ford | 43.2% | 17 | 1.921 | 1.312 | .977 | .682 | 96.4 | 63.2% | 47.4% |
| David Fry | 43.1% | 10 | 1.700 | .966 | .888 | .495 | 94.9 | 58.1% | 35.5% |
| Ryan Noda | 43.0% | 14 | 1.649 | 1.354 | .851 | .708 | 97.8 | 67.6% | 40.5% |
| Adam Duvall | 42.9% | 32 | 1.632 | 1.316 | .867 | .695 | 95.4 | 57.3% | 37.5% |
| Jason Heyward | 42.3% | 11 | 1.238 | .730 | .620 | .378 | 90.9 | 40.9% | 22.7% |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Santander’s 67 homers leads the majors in that span, although his charge is barely 41.1%.
“Isaac Paredes Retains getting Away With It,” wrote Ben Clemens final month whereas exploring his excessive batted ball tendencies. The catch now could be that Wrigley Area is 355 toes down the left discipline line, so one has to surprise how nicely Paredes’ manufacturing will translate to the Windy Metropolis. By way of Statcast, 25 of final 12 months’s 31 homers and 11 of this 12 months’s 16 would have been out at Wrigley, but when the remainder of these are routine fly balls, his numbers will take a success.
Defensively, Paredes is kind of common at third base, and has some expertise at second and first; he’s even performed shortstop in a pinch. He’s making $3.4 million this 12 months as a Tremendous Two, and so he has three extra years of management remaining.
With 2.9 WAR this 12 months and 4.3 WAR final 12 months, Paredes definitely eyeballs as an improve on Morel, who’s additionally 25 however who has struggled mightily this 12 months to the purpose that he made my Substitute Degree Killers record. He’s 0.1 wins under substitute degree after netting simply 1.5 WAR final 12 months.
Increasing upon what I wrote for the Killers record lower than two weeks in the past, Morel’s 18 dwelling runs put him on tempo to surpass final 12 months’s complete of 26, however nearly every little thing else about his sport has gone backward. He’s hitting simply .199/.302/.373 for a 92 wRC+, down 27 factors from final 12 months. Whereas he’s minimize his strikeout charge from 31.0% to 24.5%, he’s additionally shed 2.3 mph in common exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.8). His .242 xBA and .451 xSLG are fairly just like final 12 months’s numbers, and his .346 xwOBA is a six-point enchancment, however the place his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven factors in 2023, his precise manufacturing is 47 factors shy of his anticipated mark this season.
Possibly it’s simply unhealthy luck, however Morel’s excessive pull charge (48.5%) may very well be an element, notably on condition that he pulls so many balls on the bottom. Righties throughout the majors are collectively hitting .219 and slugging .262 on pulled grounders, however Morel is at .151 AVG/.164 SLG. Defensively, he ranks final on the place in FRV (-9), is tied for third-worst in DRS (-5), and is seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4).
That’s not tremendously promising, however maybe the Rays can get Morel to raise the ball with higher consistency and dunk it into the left discipline nook à la Paredes. He’s cheap, making simply $767,000 this 12 months, and has another 12 months earlier than he’s eligible for arbitration. However he could not even get to play commonly for lengthy, as 21-year-old Junior Caminero, the Rays’ high prospect (and no. 3 general), may get referred to as up quickly.
The Rays additionally acquired two pitching prospects in alternate for Paredes. Of the pair, the 26-year-old Bigge is the one with main league expertise, albeit simply 4 appearances totaling 3.1 innings earlier this month. A Twelfth-round select of Harvard in 2019, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty has battled accidents throughout his skilled profession, together with a torn labrum in his hip in 2021 and an indirect pressure earlier this 12 months. Because of a velocity achieve this 12 months, he’s been dominant when obtainable; in 13.1 innings at Triple-A Iowa, he’s struck out 20 (41.7%) whereas permitting simply three hits and 6 walks. He’s on The Board as a 40 FV prospect. Right here’s what Eric Longenhagen needed to say after I requested him about Bigge right now:
Bigge was sitting 88-92 at Harvard… however had a spike into the 92-96 mph vary within the bullpen after he was drafted. For the previous couple of seasons, Bigge’s stuff has ridden a little bit of a curler coaster; there have been instances when he’s sitting 92-94 and others (like extra just lately) when he’s sitting 97-99. He’s additionally handled accidents and wildness at instances, however in 2024 Bigge modified his placement on the rubber and he appears to be like extra comfy from this place to begin. After beginning the 12 months on the IL, he has thrown actually onerous and saved his walks at an affordable degree. If the adjustments to Bigge’s operation have resulted in precise strike-throwing progress, then he’s going to be a superb massive league reliever. His upper-80s cutter and mid-80s sweeper give him two different above-average pitches (the cutter is best). If the strikes are a small pattern blip, then he’ll be restricted to extra low-leverage spots throughout his Rays tenure.
The 22-year-old Johnson is the larger prospect, each actually (he lists at 6-foot-6, 205 kilos) and figuratively (he’s obtained a 40+ FV grade). A Fifteenth-round 2023 select of Ball State, he’s cut up his first skilled season between the Cubs’ A-level Myrtle Seashore and Excessive-A South Bend associates, posting a 3.54 ERA and a couple of.73 FIP with a 32.5% strikeout charge in 61 innings, typically going three or 4 at a time in a beginning or tandem position. Right here’s what Eric needed to say about Johnson:
Johnson’s velocity has taken a leap and he appears to be like far more bodily now than he did a 12 months in the past at Ball State. Actually, Johnson has been throwing more durable and more durable inside the 2024 season. His fastball averaged about 92 in a begin a couple of month earlier than the 2024 commerce deadline, and in his ultimate outing, he was as much as 97 early and averaged 94-95. He’s all the time had an excellent brief arm motion, however now Johnson appears to have extra constant really feel for launch and he’s throwing loads of strikes with this funky tailing fastball. His breaking ball is comfortably plus, with tight, late two-plane motion. If Johnson can enhance his presently below-average changeup, then he’ll have a starter’s coffer of pitches. His arm circle is so comically brief and tight that it will not be within the playing cards for him to do this, and as a substitute maybe the Rays will assist him develop a second distinct breaking ball. Johnson has a center reduction ground with the fastball/breaking ball combo he’s presently wielding, and in addition has some late-bloomer traits (his measurement and small faculty background) that point out he may have the ability to hold bettering.
All instructed, it’s an fascinating haul for the Rays, who’ve now traded two lineup regulars (Randy Arozarena is the opposite), two starters (Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin), and two relievers (Jason Adam and Phil Maton), shaving roughly $12 million off this 12 months’s payroll alone whereas including 14 prospects to their system. As for the Cubs, they’ve in all probability improved their main league roster, however the excessive form of Paredes’ manufacturing does create some added threat. Even when he’s an improve, he’s not going to show their season round, but when his manufacturing interprets, he may very well be a middle-of-the-lineup cornerstone for the subsequent few years.
