As November attracts to an in depth, the Ottawa Senators’ dream of constructing the playoffs for the primary time in eight years appears to be fading. After their embarrassing loss to the Vancouver Canucks on Nov. 23 that prolonged their present dropping streak to 5 video games, they’ve a file of 8-11-1 for a factors proportion (PTS%) of simply .425. They now sit only one level forward of the lowly Montreal Canadiens within the Atlantic Division and are 5 factors out of a wild card entry into the postseason.
Ever believers, lots of the Senators’ trustworthy say that after simply 20 video games it’s too early to throw within the towel on this marketing campaign. President of hockey operations and common supervisor Steve Staios echoed these emotions saying in a postgame interview on Nov. 20 after his squad’s loss to the Edmonton Oilers that, “I don’t suppose it is a dire scenario for this group in any respect. The group seems and appears like not solely a aggressive group, however a playoff trying group.”
After the loss to the Canucks, Staios could effectively have modified his tune. Right here’s why.
Senators Dig Deep Gap for Themselves in November
To punch a ticket to the NHL’s postseason with a wild card, groups typically must have a PTS% of round .600. For the Senators, this implies of their remaining 62 video games they’ll must rack up at the least 81 factors – and that’s .656 hockey. To place that into perspective, the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers notched a PTS% within the common season final yr of .671.Â
Does anybody actually imagine that from now to the tip of the season the Senators can take, on common, between six and 7 of each 10 video games they play? Nothing they’ve proven so far within the season suggests they will.
What Ailed the Senators in First 20 Video games of 2024-25 Season
Social media in Ottawa is exploding with explanations of why the Senators have dissatisfied to date this season. They usually begin first with goaltending. Starter Linus Ullmark was alleged to have solved Ottawa’s issues between the pipes. Followers now scoff at his save proportion (SV%) of .881 and his goals-against common (GAA) of three.10.Â
Associated: Senators’ Goaltending Nonetheless a Concern Regardless of Modifications for 2024-25
This stings as a result of former Senators’ goalie Joonas Korpisalo, after eight video games with the Boston Bruins this season boasts a SV% of .991 and a GAA of two.38. The Senators are nonetheless paying 1 / 4 of his wage in accordance with the phrases of the commerce that despatched him to Boston final summer season.
Some say Ottawa’s Swedish goalie tandem of Ullmark and Anton Forsberg isn’t the issue in any respect. They only look dangerous due to what they are saying is a crummy D-corps enjoying in entrance of them. Exhibit primary is Jake Sanderson, as soon as thought to be a stud on the Ottawa blue line, who all however disappeared in November notching simply 4 assists within the 11 video games he’s performed. On the season he has a plus/minus of minus-11 – the worst on the group.Â
What makes this tough to swallow is that former Senators’ defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who Ottawa despatched to the Washington Capitals in trade for Nick Jensen and a draft choose, now sports activities a plus/minus of plus-9 incomes a rank of second within the league amongst defensemen total. Final season in Ottawa he registered a minus-30.
Sanderson is only one symptom of an Ottawa blue line that continues to disappoint. Akin to a beer league squad, Ottawa’s defence on too many nights fails to clear the zone, turns pucks over, permits opposing gamers to cruise by the impartial zone and enter the D-zone at will and embarrasses themselves getting caught up ice. It’s one of many causes they now rank 20th within the league on targets in opposition to and their group’s objective differential has slipped to minus-3.
As for factors, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Claude Giroux are all on monitor for record-setting seasons. Even so, level manufacturing by the bottom-six as an entire has been anemic standing at barely greater than some extent per sport. Veteran forwards together with newly acquired Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins should not on monitor to match their level manufacturing of earlier seasons. What’s extra, Shane Pinto has proven himself to be completely common regardless of the excessive hopes positioned on him in the beginning of the season.
If anybody ought to know what explains the woeful efficiency of the Senators to the quarter mark of the season it needs to be Staios. But he’s unsure what’s happening both saying after the loss to the Oilers that, “We’re 8-9-1 and so they (opponents) hold scoring for a cause. Do I feel we’ve performed higher than that? Positive. But it surely’s for us to determine as a gaggle why that’s our file. That’s what we’re attempting to unlock.”
Senators’ Turnaround in December Will Be Robust
The Senators haven’t gained the video games they need to have in October and November. They merely can’t afford to surrender two factors as they did in video games with weaker opponents just like the Buffalo Sabres and Philadelphia Flyers. But on the identical time they want to have the ability to steal a win or two from good groups. That’s one thing they haven’t managed to do in November, aside from their win in opposition to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Nov. 12.
Right here’s a take a look at their opponents within the 13 video games they’ll play subsequent month and my evaluation of how tough it is going to be to win every.
| Likelihood of an Ottawa Win | Opponent |
| Excessive | Nashville Predators, Anaheim Geese (two video games) Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 50/50 | Detroit Pink Wings, New York Islanders, Seattle Kraken, Canucks, Oilers |
| Low | Carolina Hurricanes, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets,  Minnesota Wild |
In December, six consecutive video games are out of city – a part of a nine-game highway journey the Senators should play as a result of Canadian Tire Centre is internet hosting the World Junior Championship on the finish of the yr. In all, eight of 13 video games subsequent month are highway video games.
To realize a PTS% of .600 in December, the Senators would want to win three of the 4 video games I’ve assigned a excessive likelihood of them successful. On high of that, they’ll must take three of the 5 that I’ve given them 50/50 odds of successful and two of 4 matchups in opposition to groups that I’ve given them little likelihood of successful. That’s a tall order and nonetheless wouldn’t be adequate for them to notch the .600 PTS% on the season as an entire that they’ll most likely must win a wild card spot within the playoffs.
To sum all of it up, the Senators will want a restoration in December worthy of Lazarus to have an opportunity at avoiding an early begin to their golf season subsequent spring.
