By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A pair of graded stakes at
Saratoga this weekend—Saturday’s $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) and Sunday’s $250,000
Bowling Inexperienced (G2)—may very well be strongly influenced by tempo dynamics.
Let’s try the fields
and see what the potential tempo eventualities imply for handicapping:
Jim Dandy (G2)
I used to be tempted to pick out
reigning champion two-year-old male #6
Fierceness (9-5) to win the Jim Dandy. On his greatest day, Fierceness is
sensational. He trounced confirmed Grade 1 winners Muth, Locked, and Timberlake by
6 1/4 lengths within the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and his record-breaking 13
1/2-lengh demolition of the Florida Derby (G1) was a sight to behold.
However consistency is not a
robust go well with for Fierceness. He is vulnerable to misfiring, as he did when seventh in
the Champagne (G1), third within the Holy Bull (G3), and fifteenth within the Kentucky Derby
(G1). He suffered poor begins in all three of these defeats, and he presumably
wasn’t helped by urgent a sizzling tempo within the Kentucky Derby.
Fierceness set an
uncontested, modest tempo within the Florida Derby, and if he figured to take pleasure in a
related journey within the Jim Dandy I might be assured in his win possibilities. However though
the Jim Dandy drew a small six-horse subject, it is filled with velocity horses. #2 Seize the Gray (6-1) wired the
Preakness (G1) and set the tempo within the Belmont (G1), #3 Batten Down (5-1) led all the best way within the Ohio Derby (G3), and #4 Pony Categorical (20-1) exits a
gate-to-wire maiden victory at Santa Anita.
A contested tempo appears
doubtless, so I will again #1 Sierra
Leone (1-1), a tried-and-true nearer who has by no means run a nasty race. After
launching huge rallies to win the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1), the son
of Gun Runner carried out nicely within the Triple Crown, ending second (crushed solely
a nostril) within the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third by 1 1/2 lengths within the Belmont
(G1).
Each the Kentucky Derby and
the Belmont passed off over 1 1/4 miles, and previous to the Belmont I argued that
the space is likely to be somewhat farther than Sierra Leone needs to run. I am
optimistic chopping again to 1 1/8 miles for the Jim Dandy will strengthen his
ending kick and result in victory beneath jockey Flavien Prat, a 31% winner
teaming up with coach Chad Brown over the past two months per Brisnet
statistics.
For the minor awards, #5 Gould’s Gold (15-1) is an intriguing
longshot. He gamely chased Batten Down each step of the best way within the Ohio Derby
and closed some floor down the lane to complete second by 1 3/4 lengths. I
envision Gould’s Gold settling towards the again of the Jim Dandy subject, doubtless
in fifth place, and if a quick tempo unfolds he’ll have an opportunity to select up
the items and snatch a top-three end.
Bowling Inexperienced (G2)
It looks like an sincere tempo
must develop within the Bowling Inexperienced. The 1 3/8-mile turf take a look at includes a
tried-and-true pacesetter within the type of #6
Sturdy High quality, a stakes winner on each grime and turf this yr. #3 Sugoi, a gate-to-wire winner of the
1 1/2-mile Louisville (G3) over the Churchill Downs garden, likewise brings velocity
to the desk. Louisville runner-up #7
Sturdy Tide figures to be prominently positioned as nicely.
All this velocity is, in my
opinion, excellent news for #2 Silver Knott.
Runner-up by a nostril within the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Silver Knott
went 0-for-6 throughout his three-year-old marketing campaign, although he did place in a
quartet of graded stakes.
Silver Knott has turned
issues round impressively since stretching out in distance as a four-year-old.
First he tracked a gradual tempo on his technique to victory within the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn
(G2) at Keeneland, during which he defeated a number of graded stakes winner Missed
the Minimize by 1 1/2 lengths. Then Silver Knott reduce barely in distance for
the 1 3/8-mile Man o’ Battle (G2) at Aqueduct and romped by 4 1/2 lengths over a
subject that included three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Nations Pleasure.
I used to be fairly impressed by
Silver Knott’s Man o’ Battle efficiency. The tempo was first rate over a superb turf
course—:24.09, :48.09, and 1:13.48—and Silver Knott confidently settled in
third place, as many as six lengths behind a runaway chief, earlier than easily taking
command to dominate.
I envision Silver Knott
understanding an identical journey within the Bowling Inexperienced. If the tempo is on the short
facet, he can settle and get first run when the leaders tire. If, on the opposite
hand, the tempo is unexpectedly gradual, Silver Knott can keep shut as he did in
the Elkhorn and nonetheless take management when it counts.
For all these causes, I
view Silver Knott as one of the doubtless stakes winners of the weekend. #1 Ohana Honor, runner-up within the Man o’
Battle and most lately third in a robust version of the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan
(G1), can full the exacta.
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (often known as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An important fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
