Breeders’ Cup races carry collectively the most effective horses from coast to coast in the US together with some high worldwide contenders, which might make World Championships races unpredictable.
That unpredictability is a giant a part of the attract, not just for the rivals however for bettors who spend a lot of the yr handicapping five- and six-horse fields and all of the sudden feast their eyes on a program stuffed with high quality fields of 10-14 starters. To place it succinctly, you probably have a powerful opinion on Breeders’ Cup day you may be rewarded when appropriate.
There are winners at double-digit odds at each Breeders’ Cup, and even when your greatest wager is between 3-1 and 9-2 odds, you’ll be able to wager them massive to win or get inventive with exactas/trifectas or multi-race bets to succeed in for a much bigger payout.
Maybe no race over the previous 25 years has been as constantly unpredictable because the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), which has had 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999-2023. Simply final yr, Fierceness  rolled to a 6 1/4-length runaway victory Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park within the 2023 Juvenile one begin after dropping by 20 1/4 lengths in his closing pre-Breeders’ Cup begin. His backers within the Juvenile have been rewarded with a $35 return for a $2 win wager.
Utilizing the previous 25 editions of the race because the information, listed below are some key tendencies and historic nuggets that can assist you decide a winner for the 2024 Juvenile Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Search for A lot of 1s
Let’s put aside Fierceness final yr for a minute. He appears to be like like a transparent anomaly over the previous quarter-century as the one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to enter the race off an unplaced end. The opposite 24 entered off a top-three end with 16 of the 25 and 10 of the previous 14 coming into the Juvenile off a win. The group as a complete gained 55 of 86 begins for a 64% win price.
In Fierceness’ case, my greatest rationalization is that he ran a gap within the wind in his debut and his seventh-place end within the Champagne Stakes (G1) was a destructive response to a monster race in his first begin. He has since proved to be a little bit of a unusual racehorse and likewise a lot better than his 16.5-1 odds in final yr’s Juvenile advised.
Worth Class
In evaluating the previous 25 editions of the Juvenile, some winners have run exceptionally quick like Conflict Go in 2007 and Uncle Mo in 2010, each incomes 123 Equibase Pace Figures. Others, like Shanghai Bobby (86 Equibase Pace Determine), ran successful races that have been, nicely, not so quick. It appears apparent, however by way of pace figures, contemplate these 2-year-old contenders compared with their friends fairly than a historic benchmark.
Place a powerful emphasis on class as 12 of the previous 25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners had already gained a grade 1 race and 15 have been not less than stakes winners. Solely three weren’t both graded stakes-placed or a stakes winner. One of many three was Fierceness and the opposite two entered off maiden wins for Corridor of Fame trainers: Motion This Day (2003) and New 12 months’s Day (2013).
Previous to Fierceness, the earlier 9 Juvenile winners have been both grade 1 winners or had completed within the high three in a grade 1 race.
High Trainers Are, Effectively, Exhausting to High
If you look on the record of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-winning trainers over the previous 25 years, most of the names will probably be recognizable to informal followers: Bob Baffert (5 wins), Todd Pletcher (4 wins), Doug O’Neill (two wins), Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Richard Mandella, Mark Casse. Add in older Corridor of Famers resembling Carl Nafzger and Nick Zito and elite European coach Aidan O’Brien and these are the trainers of 18 of the previous 23 Breeders’ Cup winners.
It is smart as massive trainers are coaching a better share of the horse inhabitants, however suffice it to say to look in apparent locations first when looking for the 2024 Juvenile winner.
Profile of a Profitable Favourite
Solely 5 of the previous 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have been gained by the race favourite, however all 5 of these runners have been unbeaten, having mixed to win all 14 of three pre-Breeders’ Cup begins. They have been rising stars for Nick Zito (Conflict Go, 2007), Todd Pletcher (Uncle Mo  , 2010; Shanghai Bobby, 2012), and Bob Baffert (Sport Winner  , 2018; Corniche  , 2021) who capped unbeaten championship campaigns. 4 of the 5 have been tempo or press-the-pace sorts with solely Sport Winner preferring to rally from off the tempo.
Uncovering Longshots
Seven of the ten winners at double-digit odds from 1999-2023 got here at Southern California venues, both Santa Anita or this yr’s host Del Mar. Should you get rid of the 2 editions held on an all-weather floor in Southern California, six of the opposite 9 editions within the state have been gained by double-digit longshots.
Regulate closers. Of the ten complete double-digit longshots since 1999—starting from 10-1 (New 12 months’s Day, 2013) to 45-1 (Storm the Court docket, 2019) odds—six have been fifth or worse after the opening quarter-mile and 4 have been between eleventh and 14th after a quarter-mile had been run within the 1 1/16-mile race. 5 of the ten have been eighth or worse after a half-mile had been accomplished.
Solely two of the ten longshots entered off victories: Motion This Day gained at 26-1 off a maiden win in 2003 and New 12 months’s Day gained off of a maiden win in 2013. Seven of the opposite eight entered off a top-three end in a grade 1 or grade 2 race. Solely Fierceness was unplaced in his closing begin from amongst this group.
No Dominant Operating Type
5 of the previous 25 editions of the Juvenile have been gained by confirmed pacesetters, whereas three have been press-the-pace kind runners. Three closers gained the race and one other 5 prevailed who match a stalker/nearer mould. There additionally have been seven who profiled as stalkers and two others who match into the stalker/press the tempo class, so no specific working type has been particularly efficient.
Tactical pace has been useful with 10 winners working in both first or second after the opening quarter-mile and half-mile. Likewise, solely two of the previous 25 Juvenile winners have been greater than two lengths again in early stretch.
Within the 9 editions held on filth in Southern California, six of the runners have been within the high three after the primary quarter-mile and 7 of the 9 have been in first in early stretch, so it has been harder to shut within the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles held on filth in California.
Bluegrass Attraction
Just one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner previously 25 years was not bred in Kentucky: Irish-bred Vale of York, a 30-1 longshot winner on the all-weather floor at Santa Anita in 2009. It is a secure wager that this yr’s Juvenile winner will probably be a Kentucky-bred 2-year-old.
2024 Contenders
Over the previous 25 years, 10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners got here out of prep races in California, 5 got here out of the Champagne Stakes in New York, and 4 made their closing pre-Breeders’ Cup begin at Keeneland within the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), so it is smart to start out there.
Citizen Bull gained the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita by two lengths for his second win in three begins for Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert, who has gained 20% of the final 25 editions of the race. Citizen Bull is a powerful win candidate, however others have extra enchantment to me.
East Avenue appears to be like just like the almost definitely winner popping out of a front-running, 5 1/4-length romp within the Breeders’ Futurity. The Godolphin homebred skilled by Brendan Walsh improved to 2-for-2 with the win and has tactical pace, however I do not assume he is a need-the-lead kind.
Chancer McPatrick is one other unbeaten contender after closing from ninth to win the Champagne Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths for high coach Chad Brown. He is 3-for-3 and comes out of a really productive prep race.
For bettors in search of a longshot, American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Automobile was favored over Bob Baffert stablemate Citizen Bull in that race. He was taken off the tempo for the primary time within the American Pharoah and ran fairly nicely. He might be the most effective worth of Baffert’s three potential contenders. Likewise, Ferocious completed second as the favourite within the Breeders’ Futurity after he unseated his rider earlier than the race after which was bumped coming into the primary flip.
In case you are in search of a real bombs-away longshot, I’ve two that may match the invoice. McKinzie Road completed a well-beaten third within the American Pharoah Stakes after a runner-up end within the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He does his greatest working from off the tempo and enters off a top-three end in a key California prep race. Japanese invader Shin Consider, a Kentucky-bred for high Japanese coach Hideyuki Mori, enters off a dominant maiden win at 1 1/8 miles in his profession debut and really doubtless will probably be missed.
