In case you’ve been asleep all season, the Marlins are heading into the July 30 commerce deadline as sellers and are all however sure to commerce nearer Tanner Scott inside the subsequent 13 days. High starter Jesus Luzardo was seen as a near-lock to go as properly, earlier than a visit to the 60-day IL tanked his commerce candidacy. Heart fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. — who is totally, one hundred pc coincidentally getting his first work at second base since 2022 at a time when Miami is listening to commerce affords from infield-needy groups — additionally appears fairly prone to change fingers. If the Marlins can discover a taker for even a portion of Josh Bell’s $16.5MM wage, he’ll go too.
However for all of the speak on Scott, Chisholm and Luzardo all through the season, the Marlins have one other fairly apparent commerce candidate who isn’t mentioned almost as typically regardless that he’s arguably a extra interesting commerce candidate than Scott. Maybe that’s as a result of a disastrous begin to the season tanked his numbers, however A.J. Puk has not solely salvaged his 2024 marketing campaign — he’s been among the best relievers in baseball for greater than a month.
Heading into the season, Miami raised a couple of eyebrows by opting to stretch Puk again out as a starter. The previous Florida Gator was drafted as a starter however had by no means began a sport within the majors. He final began 4 video games in 2021 when nonetheless within the A’s group and hadn’t labored as a full-time starter since 2017.
In case you’ve adopted any of the reliever-to-starter experiment check-ins I’ve written up this season (one from the quarter mark and one from the midway mark), you’ll know that the train didn’t go properly. Puk made the concept look good in spring coaching when he pitched 13 2/3 innings of 1.32 ERA ball with a gargantuan 41.1% strikeout charge and sharp 7.1% stroll charge. It was solely 4 begins in exhibition play, but it surely’s simple to see why the staff was inspired.
Sadly, Puk’s regular-season dalliance with beginning additionally lasted all of 13 2/3 innings over 4 begins. He was shelled for 17 runs (14 earned) on 19 hits and an alarming 17 walks. He fanned solely 12 opponents. That’s a paltry 15.6% strikeout charge and stratospheric 22.1% stroll charge. The Fish put Puk on the injured listing with shoulder fatigue. He returned as a reliever tasked with the unenviable mission of decreasing a 9.22 ERA over a sequence of one-inning stints. Good luck, Mr. Puk.
Or possibly he didn’t want the luck. Puk’s ERA is right down to 4.73 on the season, and whereas that’s an entirely unimpressive quantity in its personal proper, it’s skewed dramatically however that lamentable foray into rotation work. Since he’s moved to the bullpen, Puk sports activities a 2.39 ERA in 26 1/3 innings. He’s fanned 26% of his opponents in opposition to a 5% stroll charge. Puk walked 5 batters in 4 2/3 innings in a single begin at Yankee Stadium on April 9. He’s now walked 5 batters complete since Could 13, all whereas posting a terrific 13.8% swinging-strike charge and 34.1% chase charge.
Not solely has Puk been rejuvenated in his transfer to a bullpen position, he’s additionally saved his finest work for the summer season run-up to the commerce deadline. Nobody has eked out an earned run in opposition to the lanky 6’7″ southpaw since June 17. Puk is driving a 12 2/3-inning scoreless streak that’s seen him whiff 18 of the 43 batters he’s confronted (41.9%) whereas strolling solely two of them (4.7%). Puk, after averaging 93.3 mph on his four-seamer out of the rotation, has averaged 96.1 mph since shifting again to brief aid. He’s been throwing even more durable throughout this scoreless run, sitting 96.6 mph on his fastball, which has helped him put up an eye-popping 20.5% swinging-strike charge and laughable 40% opponents’ chase charge. Every thing is working for Puk proper now; his four-seamer, sinker and slider have all generated plus outcomes throughout this sizzling streak.
Puk seems to be each bit like he was miscast in his position as a starter to start the 12 months, however since shifting again into the bullpen he’s been electrical. And over the previous month, he leads all main league relievers in FanGraphs WAR. He’s seventh amongst certified relievers in strikeout charge throughout this present stretch and fourth in Okay-BB%. Puk hasn’t merely been higher since shifting again to the ’pen — he’s been the perfect model of himself we’ve ever seen. And for a pitcher with greater than 4 years of MLB service who saved 19 video games and tallied 22 holds whereas working to a 3.51 ERA in 2022-23, that’s fairly notable. Puk wasn’t a foul reliever earlier than the ill-fated transfer to the rotation, however he additionally wasn’t an excellent one. Now, he seems to be like a probably elite one.
The timing couldn’t be higher for a Marlins membership that has no hope of reaching the postseason and waved the white flag on their season again in early Could once they traded Luis Arraez in a surprising early-season blockbuster. Detractors may argue that the Fish waved the white flag on the season earlier than Opening Day, as their largest offseason additions of observe had been Tim Anderson, Nick Gordon, Vidal Brujan and Calvin Faucher (whereas additionally subtracting Jon Berti and Steven Okert).
Puk instantly stands as an fascinating commerce candidate not solely due to his latest dominance however due to his contract and remaining membership management. He’s incomes simply $1.8MM in 2024 and may have $600K of that sum remaining as of deadline day. (Proper now, he’s at $716K left on his deal.) An buying staff would then be capable of management Puk for 2 extra seasons past the present marketing campaign. He can’t turn out to be a free agent till the 2026-27 offseason. His early struggles and IL stint — plus Scott’s presence because the nearer — have restricted his time on the sphere, his charge stats and his save/maintain alternatives. All of that can mix to assist maintain his arbitration price ticket decrease than if he’d spent the whole season as a high-end setup man or nearer who excels in leverage conditions.
Puk is a 29-year-old former top-10 draft decide and consensus high prospect who’s battled myriad accidents. He appeared unimpressive as a starter however has shortly reminded everybody why he was a well-regarded reliever and somebody former Marlins GM Kim Ng felt snug buying and selling away one other former top-10 decide (JJ Bleday) so as to purchase. He has two years of membership management remaining, and it’s uncertain he’d even value a brand new membership a complete of $10MM over the course of his remaining window of management.
It’s a lot comprehensible that Scott and Chisholm are drawing consideration — however Puk ought to be proper there alongside them. It was a mistake, plain and easy, to depart him off final week’s high commerce candidate listing. The Marlins appear keen to hear on nearly any member of the lively roster, and Puk is arguably essentially the most interesting goal for different groups as they take a look at what’s on the menu in Miami. He’s lacking an identical variety of bats to Scott however issuing walks at a mere fraction of the speed whereas incomes a 3rd of the wage and carrying two further years of membership management. Puk ought to command a authentic prospect package deal, and there might be no scarcity of groups calling.
