Saturday night time at Sphere in Las Vegas, Sean O’Malley places his bantamweight title on the road towards No. 1 Contender Merab Dvalishvili in the primary occasion of UFC 306.
Can O’Malley retain his title, how can Dvalishvili develop into the brand new champion, and what are we most intrigued by on this matchup? Let’s dive in.
Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photos
Paths to Victory for Sean O’Malley at UFC 306
O’Malley is a fighter within the mould of Conor McGregor: an extended, rangy striker with glorious timing and imaginative and prescient, and a penchant for countering. However whereas McGregor’s recreation was constructed nearly completely round discovering methods to detonate his left hand, O’Malley is a little more various in his hanging, and far more reliant on his kicking recreation, which can be one of many largest elements this weekend.
O’Malley makes liberal use of entrance kicks, leg kicks, and teeps to the physique, which function one of many constructing blocks of his offense. These kicks aren’t only a scoring weapon on their very own, however they assist him set up his most popular lengthy vary and arrange his punches and counters. However towards Dvalishvili these kicks are a double-edged sword. Sure, they might help him set up the vary he must be at, however a elementary side of kicking is that it makes you extra susceptible to takedowns, which presents an issue.
O’Malley’s path to victory this Saturday is extraordinarily simple: hold Dvalishvili at vary + defend takedowns = revenue. Dvalishvili is prepared boxer (arguably too prepared) however his protection is toughness, which makes him a sitting duck if O’Malley can hold issues standing. And O’Malley does have the instruments to tug that off. The bantamweight champion is a strong defensive wrestler, made all the higher at it by his capability to handle vary.
Whereas Aljamain Sterling acquired quite a lot of flak for not capturing many takedowns on O’Malley of their combat, the reality is he by no means had nice alternatives to take action. O’Malley circled and pivoted his means across the cage, retaining as a lot distance between them as potential, making it so Sterling actually solely had determined outdoors photographs accessible to him. Taking pictures from six ft away just isn’t a playbook for fulfillment for anybody and it’s extraordinarily seemingly that O’Malley’s plan for Dvalishvili could be very comparable.
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Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photos
Paths to victory for Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306
Dvalishvili is the premier pressure-wrestler competing in MMA immediately. “The Machine” has a recreation constructed completely round relentless, exhausting tempo and strain, and the perfect cardio within the sport, presumably ever. Add in a really stout chin and the mixture makes Dvalishvili a nightmare for almost everybody he faces, particularly in 5 spherical fights. And so, as talked about above, the trail for Dvalishvili is easy: do what he does greatest.
In opposition to O’Malley, Dvalishvili can’t interact in extended hanging exchanges and hope to achieve success. Dvalishvili just isn’t incapable on the ft, however he’s a far cry from spectacular, and extra importantly his protection is a large legal responsibility. Dvalishvili is extraordinarily hittable and up to now hasn’t actually been punished for it as a result of he’s very sturdy and may go to the wrestling when he will get tagged. However there’s that outdated expression about enjoying with hearth and Dvalishvili chooses to take action, ultimately he’s going to get burned.
That being mentioned, Dvalishvili additionally can’t be afraid to strike with O’Malley. Once more, hanging shouldn’t be his plan, however Dvalishvili goes to should wade into the firing zone and eat some photographs to get to his wrestling, or else he’ll even be caught capturing determined makes an attempt from too far outdoors, identical to Sterling was. For Dvalishvili, the important thing to this combat will probably be discovering the suitable steadiness.
Factor I’m most excited by seeing
Whereas I usually have a look at potential X-factors that may very well be at play on combat night time, this combat doesn’t actually supply a lot in that regard. So as a substitute, I needed to speak a bit concerning the first spherical, as a result of on this combat, I believe we are going to know who the winner is by how the primary spherical goes.
On paper, Dvalishvili needs to be trying to drag this contest into the later rounds. Energy fades the longer fights go on, so O’Malley turns into much less harmful, and Dvalishvili’s legendary cardio can start to takeover. Nonetheless, I believe Dvalishvili actually must both win the opening body of the combat, or no less than set the tone if he desires to win.
If O’Malley comes out and retains his lengthy vary and pot-shots Dvalishvili for your complete first 5 minutes, the combat is mainly over. Not solely will his confidence develop however Dvalishvili doesn’t have a deep bag of changes to look to. It would simply be extra of the identical till the ultimate bell sounds or O’Malley lands a killshot.
Conversely, if Dvalishvili comes out and places O’Malley to work immediately, this combat is a wrap. O’Malley could have just a few extra tips he may attempt to deploy if he loses the primary body, however at that time, his proverbial “energy bar” will already be depleted. Dvalishvili is just like the Juggernaut, and if he will get even the tiniest little bit of momentum, he’s going to run unstoppably over whoever he’s preventing.
On this combat, the primary spherical is a bellwether to your complete contest.
Prediction
Many individuals on-line have dubbed this combat “Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor 2.0” and whereas it’s intelligent and never completely unfaithful, I additionally don’t suppose it’s fairly proper. For one factor, the bodily gulf between Khabib and Conor (heck, Khabib and each different light-weight) was VAST, and for one more, Khabib is a considerably extra harmful fighter than Dvalishvili may ever hope to be. When Khabib acquired his palms on somebody, they had been going for a trip after which he was going to bash the soul out of them. When Merab grabs one thing, they go for a trip, after which one other trip, after which one other trip. It’s not the identical. Alongside the identical strains, O’Malley will not be as harmful of a fighter as McGregor was at his peak, however he’s a extra full one.
Finally, this matchup is between a dynamic fighter with a superb quantity of depth to his recreation vs. a one-track fighter who lacks ending abilities. Might Dvalishvili pitch a shutout over 25 minutes and develop into the brand new champion? It’s undoubtedly potential. However I believe the safer wager is that O’Malley by no means lets him get going and finds the end.
Sean O’Malley def. Merab Dvalishvili through TKO (punches) — Spherical 3, 2:24
