UFC Paris: Finest betting props, parlays and picks | Moicano vs. Saint Denis

UFC Paris takes place this weekend (Sat., Sept. 28, 2024) inside Accor Enviornment in Paris, France. The primary occasion pits two Lightweights recognized to complete fights, with Renato Moicano assembly Benoit Saint Denis. A win for both man might put them within the prime ten of the rankings and inside placing distance of the elites at 155 lbs.

The co-main is Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen at Middleweight. Imavov is ranked fourth, however he may very effectively get the Magomed Ankalaev remedy on this division as a consequence of his controversial win over Jared Cannonier and his total lack of presence. There’s not a lot intrigue on this card past that. There’s plenty of bouts that includes massive native favorites towards lengthy shot journeymen.

The “Prelims” headliner is veteran Mild Heavyweight Ion Cutelaba versus KSW favourite Ivan Erslan. Undefeated Mild Heavyweight prospect Oumar Sy additionally options on the Prelims. He’s been given a heat physique within the type of Da Woon Jung. L’udovit Klein, who seemed lights out in his final efficiency, additionally seems. He’s a large favourite towards Roosevelt Roberts.

Let’s checkout the cash strains on “Moicano vs. Saint Denic” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Paris Principal Card Cash Line Odds

Renato Moicano (+220) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-270)

There’s not a lot title worth right here, however Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis may very well be a really thrilling battle. Each males can end fights with their fists or their floor video games. 47.5% of their professional fights, mixed, have resulted in submission victories. Moicano has six submissions towards UFC opposition, Saint Denis has simply two. Saint Denis has proven lots of energy in his placing as of late, although, ending three UFC fights by way of stoppage (together with a head kick towards Matt Frevola — see it right here).

Saint Denis is coming off the most important battle of his profession. He co-mained UFC 299 in March. That’s the place he received melted by Dustin Poirier (see it right here).

Moicano is coming into this battle off a win. He TKO’d Jalin Turner in his final battle, on the undercard of UFC 300 (see it right here).

Apparently, Saint Denis was trying fairly good till Poirier caught him with a KO shot. And Moicano was trying beat till Turner made a low battle IQ mistake for the ages.

The context round these outcomes matter and that’s enjoying a task in why Saint Denis is a fairly respectable favourite on this match-up. The bookies clearly don’t assume there’s any disgrace in shedding to a generational expertise like Poirier.

Stats sensible, these two are fairly even in peak and attain. The primary distinction from a physiology standpoint in that Saint Denis is six years youthful (and has much less put on and tear on his physique — 16 professional fights in comparison with Moicano’s 25).

Within the UFC Saint Denis has proven a lot sharper, and heavier, placing than Moicano. Moicano lands an honest quantity of strikes (4.38 vital strikers per minute), however these don’t translate to knockdowns and finishes. Saint Denis, however, lands just a little extra per minute (5.7). However what’s most telling about his placing is that he lands 1.7 knockdowns per quarter-hour, which is nice for second place within the division. Saint Denis absorbs an honest quantity of strikes, however regardless of that he nonetheless leads the division in sig. strike differential (3.34).

Moicano has among the division’s greatest placing protection, at 60%, however he nonetheless absorbs 3.68 sig. strikes a minute. If Saint Denis lands at that price, I feel his energy goes to tremendously have an effect on the battle.

Moicano solely allowed Turner to land 16 vital strikes, however that’s all he wanted to harm and put down Moicano. If he hadn’t made his foolish determination to stroll away as if the battle was received it’s very seemingly Moicano would have been completed.

Turner is a strong striker, however his knockdown common (0.98) trails Saint Denis’.

On this battle I feel we’re going to see Moicano attempt to keep away from placing with Saint Denis. However I’m undecided he can keep away from it for too lengthy. Ultimately he’s going to really feel that energy after which develop into determined to have this on the bottom.

Sadly for him, I don’t assume the bottom is a secure place for him to go. Due to that I’m simply undecided how Moicano can win this battle.

Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis by way of TKO, spherical 2.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Nassourdine Imavov (-235) vs. Brendan Allen (+190)

Final day out Nassourdine Imavov was the fortunate recipient of a really early TKO stoppage. He was shedding in his foremost occasion date with Jared Cannonier in June, unable to cope with the strain and clinch management of the 40-year-old ‘Killa Gorilla’. He was behind on the scorecards heading into the fourth spherical and knew he wanted to complete the battle.

The shot he landed on Cannonier within the fourth was very exhausting and Cannonier was stumbling round. However he appeared completely clear headed when Jason Herzog (who’s normally fairly glorious) known as the motion to a detailed. I personally assume Imavov was trending upwards in that battle and that if it had gone additional he would have continued to land exhausting photographs on Cannonier and would have finally earned a TKO. Nevertheless, we’ll by no means know that and, sadly, that win will stay fishy for many individuals.

The win adopted a majority determination over Roman Dolidze in February. Imavov began effectively in that bout, however then drained and was fortunate to not lose to Dolidze.

Brendan Allen is coming off a break up determination win over Chris Curtis in April. Allen received the nod there regardless of being outlanded by Curtis. The takedowns have been the story for Allen, although. Over 5 rounds he landed 6 of 13 makes an attempt and was in a position to get pleasure from over six minutes of management time.

The win for Allen prolonged his win streak to seven fights (which began after his TKO loss to Curtis again in 2021). Throughout his win streak he’s scored 4 rear bare choke wins. The latest being towards Paul Craig (see it right here).

Imavov is the favourite right here. However I’m leaning in the direction of the American on this match-up.

Imavov’s takedown protection is superb, however not elite. He stuffs 76.9% of takedowns, which is nice for ninth within the division. I anticipate that to be examined by Allen’s 51.6% takedown accuracy (which is third within the division).

Cannonier (proprietor of a 46% takedown accuracy) landed certainly one of one takedowns on Imavov. Dolidze (who has a takedown accuracy of 40%) went 0-4. Sean Strickland (64% takedown accuracy) landed certainly one of one takedowns, too.

For those who have a look at Imavov’s success at defending takedowns, he has principally stopped everybody whose takedown accuracy isn’t round or above that fifty% mark.

Imavov has by no means been submitted within the UFC. He’s solely been submitted as soon as (a guillotine in his second ever professional battle). I don’t assume Allen will be capable to faucet him on this three spherical battle, however I feel Imavov might be on the bottom (with Allen on his again) for lots of the battle and that it will imply a call loss on dwelling soil.

Prediction: Brendan Allen by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures

William Gomis (+235) vs. Joanderson Brito (-290)

Joanderson Brito received a bizarre one final day out. At UFC 301 in Rio he was declared the winner after a lower on the shin of Jack Shore stopped the battle (see it right here). Brito had been profitable the battle and his leg kicks clearly brought on Shore lots of hassle. He additionally punched Shore’s leg a bunch when he observed it leaking like a faucet. Shore tried to grapple his manner out of hassle, however Brito is extremely robust for his dimension.

That was Brito’s fifth win in a row. That streak contains stoppages of Jonathan Pearse (see his ninja choke right here) and Westin WIlson. His solely loss in UFC was a call to Invoice Algeo in 2022. That got here after his Contender Collection win over one Diego Lopes.

Brito was in a position to take down Lopes and land brutal floor and pound earlier than an unintentional eye poke ended the battle. That resulted in a technical determination win for Brito.

I feel he’ll have simply an excessive amount of energy in each placing, wrestling and grappling for William Gomis.

Gomis is 3-0 within the UFC with ho-hum selections over Jarno Evans and Francis Marshall and a physique kick KO over Yanis Ghemmouri (which can have been a low blow). Ghemmouri, should you’ve forgotten, is the man who was +850 towards Peyton Talbott earlier this yr.

Gomis has a 60% takedown protection on paper. However Marshall, the one fighter he’s confronted in UFC with a wrestling custom, received him down 2 of 5 occasions.

I feel Brito will get him down and beats him up on the bottom over three rounds.

Prediction: Joanderson Brito by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Kevin Jousset (+155) vs. Bryan Battle (-185)

Kevin Jousset is 2-0 in UFC, however hasn’t fought since December 2023. His debut win was a submission of Kiefer Crosbie (one of many worst fighters to characteristic within the UFC these days). He then received a call win over the artful Kenan Track.

After profitable TUF in 2021, Bryan Battle has gone 4-1 and 1 NC in UFC. His greatest win is a 14 second KO over Gabe Inexperienced (see it right here).

Jousset has managed to land lots of quantity in his UFC profession, to date. However I feel that’s extra right down to his degree of opponents than his prowess as a striker. Battle has been extra ‘battle-tested’ within the Octagon and I feel he’s simply the extra well-rounded fighter right here. Vegas appears to agree.

Prediction: Bryan Battle by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Morgan Charriere (-850) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+500)

Former multi-division Cage Warriors champion Morgan Charriere is a large favourite on this bout with Gabriel Miranda (who’s coming in on brief discover). He’s coming off a Combat of the Evening break up determination loss towards Chepe Marsical in April (Mariscal was a late discover opponent there). Previous to that battle he earned Efficiency of the Evening for his physique kick TKO win over Manolo Zecchini in his UFC debut (see it right here).

We haven’t seen Gabriel Miranda since he choked out Shane Younger at UFC 293 final September. He was purported to battle Billy Quarantillo in March, however he needed to pull out. Miranda’s solely different UFC look was a brutal TKO loss to our headliner Benoit Saint Denis (see it right here).

Miranda will get hit an excessive amount of to be aggressive on this battle. He absorbs 6.88 vital strikes per minute and has a porous placing protection of 39%. A few of that might be excusable if he have been touchdown lots of strikes himself. However his 3.52 per minute output is mid at greatest.

Charriere is there to be hit, too. He has a unfavourable placing differential (although not as excessive as Miranda’s).

I feel Charriere will discover lots of success on the toes right here and Miranda will fade away within the later rounds.

Prediction: Morgan Charriere by way of TKO, spherical 3.

Picture by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Fares Ziam (-120) vs. Matt Frevola (Evens)

Fares Ziam has quietly put collectively a 5-2 UFC document. His greatest win might be his unanimous determination over Jai Herbert final yr. Matt Frevola is 5-4-1 in UFC and is coming off that head kick KO loss to Saint Denis.

Earlier than that loss Frevola stopped Drew Dober to win a POTN bonus (see it right here).

Ziam could be very defensively sound, with 65% placing protection and 67% takedown protection. He leads the Light-weight division with vital strikes absorbed per minute with simply 1.72. Sadly, he doesn’t do sufficient offensively to essentially make these stats shine.

Frevola is the polar reverse to Ziam in that he likes to assault and can take loads of dangers to take action. He’s as cavalier in his placing as he’s along with his takedown sport and customarily places on a enjoyable battle whether or not he wins or loses.

I’m actually undecided if Frevola’s offense is sufficient to trump Ziam’s protection, right here. And I’m equally not sure if Ziam can do sufficient offensively to beat Frevola.

Ziam may have an honest attain benefit over Frevola (4 inches) so he may be capable to pressure this battle to be a really low quantity kickboxing match from distance. If Frevola can’t get the takedown, he may lose a really forgettable determination.

Prediction: Fares Ziam by way of unanimous determination

UFC Paris ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Ion Cutelaba (-125) vs. Ivan Erslan (+105)

Ion Cutelaba is being given a UFC debutante right here in Paris. Ivan Erslan is a KO artist most recognized for his exploits in KSW. On the KSW Khalidov vs. Adamek present in February he knocked Bogdan Gnidko out chilly.

Cutelaba is the favourite right here. However that is perhaps on title recognition alone. I feel Erslan is a really stay canine on this match-up. He’s an enormous Mild Heavyweight and he has numerous energy. I feel he’ll get an opportunity to check Cutelaba’s chin right here.

Cutelaba’s placing protection is sub 50%. His placing accuracy is sub 50%, too. So I feel this may very well be a tough evening if he stands and bangs with Erslan.

Erslan has loads of warning indicators, although. His placing protection isn’t very tight both. He’s very a lot a kill or be killed type of fighter. With plus odds, I’m blissful to danger it with him versus the very inconsistent, and infrequently beatable, Cutelaba.

Prediction: Ivan Erslan by way of TKO, spherical 1.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Oumar Sy (-550) vs. Da Woon Jung (+375)

UFC have struggled to get Oumar Sy fights contained in the Octagon. The tremendous prospect needed to endure by three opponent adjustments earlier than Tuco Tokkos was trucked out in entrance of him on the APEX in Might. Tokkos didn’t take the battle severely and appeared extra fascinated about being on TV than placing up a severe problem. Sy tapped him out after Tokkos selected enjoying to the cameras over defending the RNC (see it right here). Sadly, the battle didn’t inform us something new about Sy.

Da Woon Jung is on a 3 battle shedding skid. He was submitted by Carlos Ulberg final yr (see it right here). In 2022 he was KO’d by Dustin Jacoby.

The UFC know what they’ve in Sy and there’s no manner they need him shedding in Paris at this stage of his profession. Jung has good takedown protection, however Sy is a prime degree takedown artist. He ought to be capable to get Jung down and rating one other submission win right here.

On the toes, Jung will wrestle to check Sy, too. Sy has an unlimited 83 inch attain (5 inches greater than Jung).

Prediction: Oumar Sy by way of submission, spherical 1.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

L’udovit Klein (-1150) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (+650)

L’udovit Klein is a large favourite right here towards Roosevelt Roberts. I feel lots of that has to do along with his final efficiency, towards Thiago Moises at UFC Louisville. Klein seemed a really full fighter in that win. He took Moises aside on the toes and was a complete bully within the clinch.

Roosevelt Roberts is coming in on brief discover for Nikolas Motta. He ought to in all probability have ignored the decision when it got here in. He’s coming off an armbar loss to Mateusz Rebecki, in a battle he missed weight for. In 2021 he was wheel kick KO’d by UFC Sphere hero Ignacio Bahamondes (see it right here). He additionally has a submission loss to Jim Miller on his document. His final UFC win was towards Brok Weaver (keep in mind that man?).

If the identical Klein who fought Moises reveals up in Paris, it’s going to be a really robust evening for Roberts.

Prediction: L’udovit Klein by way of TKO, spherical 2.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Taylor Lapilus (-450) vs. Vince Morales (+325)

Taylor Lapulis put a beating on Cody Stamann at UFC Louisville this spring, touchdown 100 of 180 vital strikes thrown and avoiding 5 of six takedown makes an attempt. The win received him to 5-2 in UFC (two stints) and adopted his determination loss to Farid Basharat.

Vince Morales is returning to UFC after a two yr abensce. Within the Octagon he’s gone 3-5 with fairly respectable losses to Track Yadong, Miles Johns, Jonathan Martinez and Chris Gutierrez. Exterior UFC he caught Teruto Ishihara with a d’arce choke and simply slapped a Peruvian necktie on Hunter Azure.

I like Morales and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled out a artful submission win over Lapilus. However the good play needs to be Lapilus, based mostly on how good he seemed final day out. He ought to be capable to outbox and outpoint Morales for the win.

Prediction: Taylor Lapilus by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Ailin Perez (-240) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova (+195)

Everybody’s favourite Octagon tweker Ailin Perez received a grudge match with Joselyne Edwards at UFC 302 in June. She was the higher striker in that match and she or he landed six takedowns. She additionally stored her cool, regardless of being headbutted on the bottom. That unanimous determination win gave her a 3 battle profitable streak, although all her previous wins are towards ladies not within the UFC (Edwards won’t be round for much longer, both).

Darya Zheleznyakova debuted with a win over Montserrat Rendon in March. She’s very uncooked regardless of being 28-years-old. Perez is healthier skilled and I feel she might be too athletic and dynamic for Zheleznyakova.

Prediction: Ailin Perez by way of unanimous determination

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Daniel Barez (Evens) vs. Victor Altamirano (-120)

Daniel Barez was submitted by Jafel Filho in his UFC debut final July. Victor Altamirano is coming off back-to-back determination losses to Felipe dos Santos and Tim Elliott. Altamirano may have a 4 inch attain benefit and he’s simply the higher striker of the 2. Barez might be the higher wrestler, however I feel Altamirano can dangle with him sufficient there that he’ll be capable to preserve the battle standing and proceed touchdown strikes.

Prediction: Victor Altamirano by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Nora Cornolle (+175) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-210)

Nora Cornolle was purported to battle Germaine de Randamie at UFC Paris. Nevertheless, the previous UFC Bantamweight champ has been changed by Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Cavalcanti took a break up determination win over Josiane Nunes a few weeks in the past.

I used to be just a little shocked Cavalcanti didn’t get a unanimous determination win over Nunes, who she peppered with strikes on the backfoot for a lot of the battle.

Cavalcanti could be very massive for the division, however that doesn’t appear to gradual her down.

Cornolle can be a bigger Bantamweight. She missed weight for her TKO win over Melissa Mullins in April.

Cornolle could be very trustworthy to her Muay Thai upbringing. This battle might look loads like Cavalcanti vs. Nunes, with Cornolle coming forwards and Cavalcanti backing up. Cavalcanti did nice with counters towards Nunes, however she may wrestle a bit with Cornolle’s extra closed guard and straight punching strategy.

I feel this battle is nearer than the percentages counsel and that there’s a path to victory for Cornolle, by her clinch sport.

In the end, although, I feel Cavalcanti might be too cellular for Cornolle and she is going to once more discover success along with her counter placing.

Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Bolaji Oki (-220) vs. Chris Duncan (+180)

Bolaji Okli beat Timmy Cuamba in his UFC deubt in February. Chris Duncan is 2-1 in UFC and coming off a submission loss to Manuel Torres (see it right here), additionally in February. Duncan has win over current Octagon winner Yanal Ashmouz. He was in a position to out strike Ashmouz and take him down twice. Oki was very energetic towards Cuamba, however not terribly correct. I feel Duncan can gradual him down with clinches and takedowns and earn a win right here.

Prediction: Chris Duncan by way of unanimous determination.

Picture by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

UFC Paris Prop Bets, Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look fascinating (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Paris card …

Two-fight parlay: Joanderson Brito to defeat William Gomis and Ivan Erslan to defeat Ion Cutelaba (+155)

Joanderson Brito ought to be capable to over-power William Gomis at UFC Paris. He’s adequate to take him down, preserve him and beat him up when he’s down. Ivan Erslan is a stay canine on the cardboard and he has the facility to show off Ion Cutelaba’s lights.

Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung Beneath 1.5 rounds (+114)

Oumar Sy is the highest prospect on the cardboard. He’s been given a really favorable match-up right here and an opponent the UFC anticipate little or no from. His takedown and submission sport will result in a fast sub.

Brendan Allen to defeat Nassourdine Imavov by way of determination (+350)

I feel lots of people are sleeping on Brendan Allen and could also be choosing Nassourdine Imavov based mostly on the eye-test. Imavov has scraped by lots of his prime billed match-ups and I don’t assume he’ll be capable to cease the Allen’s takedowns. I feel he’ll be capable to defend the choke, however Allen will be capable to suck up lots of time hanging on his again or holding him towards the fence. That can all equal a call victory for the underdog.

Picture by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Common Pictures Group by way of Getty Pictures

UFC Paris Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

Bought one thing higher than these? Nicely, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC Paris battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 12 p.m. ET, earlier than the primary card begin time at 3 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

To take a look at the most recent and best UFC Paris: “Moicano vs. Saint Denis” information and notes you should definitely hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.