UFC Vegas 99’s greatest betting props, parlays and picks | Pereira vs. Hernandez

UFC Vegas 99 takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct., 19, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The primary occasion guarantees lots of motion with Michel Pereira assembly Anthony Hernandez within the Middleweight division. Pereira has scored some gorgeous finishes (and backflips) this yr. Hernandez, in the meantime, is on a three-fight ending streak himself. Our co-main occasion has two Bantamweights trying to recover from the hump, with Rob Font taking over Kyler Phillips. As well as, Sumudaerji — properly remembered for his bloody “Struggle of the 12 months” contender in 2022 — can be on the primary card, taking over Charles Johnson.

The “Prelims” have first rate identify worth this week.

Certainly, the primary occasion is Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev. Nicolau headlined an APEX card a number of months in the past, although that didn’t go too properly for him. The Final Fighter (TUF) veterans Brad Katona and Jessica Penne are additionally on the cardboard, locking horns with Jean Matsumoto and Elise Reed, respectively. The “Prelims” may even supply Robelis Despaigne an opportunity to show he’s greater than a one-trick pony. He’ll tackle Austen Lane.

Let’s checkout the cash traces on “Pereira vs. Hernandez” and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Vegas 99 Important Card Cash Line Odds

Anthony Hernandez (-130) vs. Michel Pereira (+115)

Michel Pereira will probably be an underdog for less than the second time in his UFC profession. In his UFC debut, again in 2019, he was a +185 canine when he met Danny Roberts. That battle resulted in a spectacular first spherical KO win for the Brazilian (see it right here). He was additionally +100 (close to even) when he beat Khaos Williams by unanimous resolution. Most his different UFC contests have seen him as an honest sized favourite, although. He was -550 final day out, when he choked Ihor Potieria out chilly, shortly after touchdown an unlawful blow through back-flip (see it right here).

Anthony Hernandez is used to being a favourite. He has been a favourite in his final 4 fights and he’s gained every of them. Final day out he choked out Roman Kopylov (see it right here) and earlier than that be TKO’d Edmen Shahbayzyan (see it right here). The final time Hernandez was an underdog was when he famously beat BJJ world champ Rodolfo Vieira (by submission!) again in 2021 (see it right here). “Fluffy” had +375 odds for that battle. The Vieira win was his first in his present five-fight win streak.

Each these males are licensed finishers. Pereira has completed over 60 % of his fights and Hernandez has completed over 80 % of his. Pereira is the extra harmful striker and Hernandez is the extra slick submission artist. Nonetheless each can maintain their very own in both division reasonably properly.

This battle will prone to be decided based mostly on the place it takes place. If the battle stays standing, Pereira can have extra probabilities to land a house run bomb or decide away for a call win. If we spend minutes on the bottom, then there’s a excessive chance Hernandez finds a choke.

Pereira has a 94 % takedown protection, on paper. Nonetheless, that quantity deserves lots of scrutiny. In his 11 UFC fights, solely 4 opponents have tried a takedown on Pereira (a part of the explanation for that’s as a result of he’s completed a number of of them earlier than they may attempt it). Those that did go for takedowns have been Santiago Ponzinibbio (who went 1-4), Niko Worth (who went 0-2), Tristan Connelly (who went 0-6) and a really washed Diego Sanchez (who went 0-6). Ponznibbio has a takedown accuracy of simply 32 %. Tristan Connelly’s was simply 14 %. Given this knowledge, Pereira doesn’t need to be thought-about a superb takedown defender.

In opposition to Hernandez he’ll meet somebody with a 49 % takedown accuracy (fourth within the division) who completes 6.62 takedowns per quarter-hour. If and once they hit the bottom, Pereira will then need to cope with Hernandez’s 3.02 submissions makes an attempt per quarter-hour (first within the division).

Pereira has good submission protection and has solely been submitted as soon as. Nonetheless, I’m positive his protection is not so good as Rodolfo Vieira’s and we noticed what Hernandez did to him.

Pereira’s greatest likelihood on this battle is touchdown one thing loopy on the ft. But when he misses (which is the most certainly end result) he’ll be in prime place for being taken down.

Given all this, I’m fairly assured that Hernandez makes good on his favourite standing on this battle. His moneyline of -130 could be very interesting to a cautious higher like myself. Hernandez through submission at +165 doesn’t really feel excessive sufficient to me to warrant transferring off of the moneyline (Hernandez has a attain benefit and is a menace to win this by floor and pound, too).

The full rounds quantity has been set at 2.5 with +110 on the over and -140 on the below. I believe the below needs to be tempting right here, particularly should you suppose Pereira can catch Hernandez chilly and get a knockout (I don’t).

In the end, I believe one of the best guess is to simply go together with Hernandez to get the win (nonetheless and at any time when it comes). For those who just like the moneyline, be affected person. His line has grown from -170 and will go increased by the point we get to battle night time.

Finest guess: Anthony Hernandez moneyline -130

Picture by Megan Briggs/Getty Photographs

Rob Font (+315) vs. Kyler Phillips (-425)

After serving a six-month suspension for ostarine (which price him a battle with Raphael Assuncao) Kyler Phillips returned to motion final summer time and beat Raoni Barcelos. He adopted that up with a unanimous resolution over Pedro Munhoz. Regardless of Munhoz’s age, that win has put Phillips on a path to potential contendership at 135 kilos. He’s ranked twelfth at present and a win over Rob Font would see him crack the Prime 10.

Whereas Phillips has been rising, Font has been sliding. He’s 1-4 in his final 5 with losses to ultra-tough opponents (Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo). All these losses went to a call. His lone win throughout that run was a flashy technical knockout over Adrian Yanez (see it right here).

The putting stats between these two are eerily related. Font’s vital strikes landed per minute are 5.53, his putting accuracy is 45 %, his sig. strikes absorbed per minute are 3.65 and his protection is 56 %. Phillips’ numbers throughout these stats are 5.72, 45 %, 3.38 and 61 %. Additionally they have virtually the identical attain.

So I believe we’re due for a stalemate in putting right here, regardless of their putting types being fairly completely different from one another. Font is a traditional boxer whereas Phillips is extra of an MMA striker. Phillips will spend upwards of 20 % of his strikes on leg kicks. Font will go three rounds with out throwing a single leg kick.

I believe that may very well be an enormous deal on this battle. Phillips has no motive to concern the takedown from font (he makes an attempt 0.89 per 15 minutes and has 35 % accuracy), so he can have a lot of alternatives to chew up that lead leg.

Font, alternatively, ought to concern takedowns from Phillips. He lands 2.41 per quarter-hour and has a 46 % accuracy. He used his takedowns to get a high quality win over Tune Yadong (going 3-5) in 2021.

Together with his extra numerous putting and wrestling menace, I’m fairly assured in Phillips on this match-up. The moneyline on Phillips will not be very interesting. So I’m trying principally at bets that correlate with this battle going the space (and Phillips getting a call). Each Font and Phillips go the space towards powerful opposition (and I believe Font remains to be a tricky opponent for Phillips regardless of his odds).

Struggle to go the space is -185. Phillips to win by resolution is -135. And over 2.5 rounds is -230. Phillips to win by unanimous resolution is -105. I actually like Phillips on this match-up, so I’ll take one of the best value on supply right here.

Finest guess: Kyler Phillips to win by unanimous resolution (-105)

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Charles Johnson (-220) vs. Sumudaerji (+180)

Sumudaerji is on a two-fight shedding streak. He misplaced to Tim Elliott, by submission, in December (see it right here). Elliott got here in on very quick discover for that one. Previous to that Sumudaerji misplaced an epic forwards and backwards battle with Matt Schnell. He appeared to have Schnell useless to rights in that bout, teeing off with haymakers, however then received harm himself and choked out chilly (see it right here).

Sumudaerji’s different loss in UFC is a submission, too, to Louis Smolka in his debut. His wins within the promotion have come over Andre Soukhamthath, Malcolm Gordon and Zarrukh Adashev.

Charles Johnson is on a pleasant little run. He KO’d Joshua Van with an uppercut in July. Earlier than that he beat Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum, each by resolution. Prior to those three wins he was 2-4 in UFC.

Johnson’s losses come when he can’t keep on his ft. When he’s in a position to stand he does job of placing collectively a affected person putting show for the judges. Sumudaerji (0.29 takedown makes an attempt per quarter-hour) is probably going to provide him the stand-up battle he’d want on this bout.

The general putting stats lean barely in Sumudaerji’s favor, notably whenever you take a look at sig. strikes absorbed per 15 minutes (2.73 vs. 3.45). However whenever you take a look at current fights, Johnson has been a lot better than that. In opposition to Van, Johnson had a +55 complete strike differential. In opposition to Hadley it was +58.

In his resolution win over Adashev, Sumudaerji was out-struck 127 to 123.

I’m forecasting Johnson to be the busier striker right here and, if Sumudaerji fights as recklessly as he has previously, Johnson might get the end right here.

I like the purpose unfold on this battle, feeling like Johnson might win this 30-27 throughout the board (or by stoppage). Johnson to win by KO/TKO is +700, in case you’re feeling particularly daring on his probabilities.

Finest guess: Charles Johnson -305 (-105)

Picture by Richard Sellers/PA Photographs through Getty Photographs

Jake Hadley (?) vs. Cameron Smotherman (?)

I believe Jake Hadley dodged a bullet right here. I used to be very assured in Brady Hiestand on this match-up. Nonetheless, whereas writing, I discovered that Hiestand is out and has been changed by Cameron Smotherman.

After back-to-back losses to Cody Durden and Charles Johnson, Hadley moved as much as Bantamweight to battle Caolan Loughran in July. He missed weight by a pound for that battle, however was in a position to get the unanimous resolution win.

Smotherman was KO’d by Charalampos Grigoriou on the Contender Collection final yr. Since then he’s gone 3-0 with Fury FC.

Keep away from this one. Hadley is to not be trusted and there’s simply not sufficient recognized about Smotherman at this degree.

Finest guess: Abstain!

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Darren Elkins (+105) vs. Daniel Pineda (-125)

Now we have two vets slated to open the primary card for us on Saturday. Darren Elkins will probably be competing in his twenty ninth UFC battle. Daniel Pineda has solely had 12 fights with the promotion, however he debuted again at UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs. Miller in 2012. He submitted Pat Schilling on that night time (an evening the place Josh Neer and Pat Barry additionally received wins and a younger man named Khabib Nurmagomedov made his Octagon debut).

Elkins is coming off a submission win over TJ Brown over a yr in the past. Pineda misplaced to Nathaniel Wooden by unanimous resolution at UFC 304 in July. Previous to that he misplaced a Struggle of the Night time to Alex Caceres.

Elkins is 40-years-old and Pineda is 39.

Pineda took lots of punishment within the Wooden battle, however was in a position to dangle in there and supply up some tough jiu jitsu to stifle Wooden from getting the end. Pineda’s greatest weapon at this level in his profession is his grappling. I don’t suppose he’ll be capable to end Elkins like that, although. Elkins has solely been submitted one time in his lengthy profession. That was to Charles Oliveira (an armbar within the first minute of their battle in 2010).

Elkins wins with strain. Nevertheless it’s getting tougher and tougher for him to ship that fashion of combating. In opposition to a fellow elder statesman, he may be capable to do it, although. He can have a submission menace to supply Pineda on this battle, too, and I considerably like his probabilities of getting a end right here greater than I like Pineda’s. Elkins has two RNC wins within the final 4 years and Pineda has six submission losses on his report.

I just like the underdog right here and the purpose unfold. Elkins +3.5 is -150. Nonetheless, I additionally suppose this battle is most certainly to go the space, one thing the oddsmakers don’t agree with. You will get Struggle to go the Distance at +165. That’s fairly good for 2 grizzled vets who could be too powerful to complete and too drained to get the end.

In the end I’ll play it protected(r) and go together with Elkins plus the factors.

Finest guess: Darren Elkins +3.5 (-150)

UFC Vegas 99 ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

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Matheus Nicolau (+140) vs. Asu Almabayev (-170)

This battle is an instance of how shortly your fortunes can change in UFC. Matheus Nicolau headlined an APEX present in April and was promptly KO’d by an Alex Perez proper hook (see it right here). His punishment for that? A prelim reserving with a really powerful rising expertise.

Asu Almabayev was in a position to coast previous Jose Johnson final day out. That call win, which noticed him go 6-11 on takedowns and revel in over 11 minutes of management time, moved him to 3-0 in UFC.

This can be a nice alternative for us to see if the 30-year-old Kazakh (who hasn’t misplaced since 2017) is able to mounting a late profession cost in UFC. He’s a favourite towards Nicolau, however solely barely. In opposition to Johnson he was a -560 favourite and he was a -600 favourite towards CJ Vergara earlier than that.

Almabayev is a takedown spammer. He lands virtually seven of them per quarter-hour and has a 56 % accuracy.

Nicolau’s takedown protection is 93 %. However, that’s as a result of he held Tim Elliott to 1 of 10 takedowns. He’s barely needed to cope with a takedown try outdoors of that battle.

If Nicolau is ready to keep standing, his putting might trigger Almabayev some issues. If he’s in a position to land some strikes early, these takedown makes an attempt might develop into fairly sluggish and telegraphed from a 30-year-old who’s new to this degree of competitors.

I believe this can be a very shut battle to name. I’m leaning in direction of Almabayev right here, but when I needed to guess on one thing I might simply go for the over. I like that since I consider Almabayev will be capable to take Nicolau down rather a lot, however I don’t see a end for him there.

Finest guess: Over 2.5 rounds (-298)

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Brad Katona (+215) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-265)

Brad Katona was a -600 favourite in his final battle. And he lived as much as these odds, smothering Jesse Butler for a no nonsense (and no leisure) win. That victory noticed him rebound from a unanimous resolution loss to Garret Armfield in January.

Jean Matsumoto is the A-side on this match-up and maybe proof that the UFC needs to push Contender grads over (and perhaps on the expense of) TUF alums. Matsumoto earned a contract with a unanimous resolution win over Kasey Tanner on Contender Collection final yr. In April he gained his UFC correct debut over Dan Argueta through guillotine. That win received him to 15-0 on his profession.

These guys are equally well-rounded. However, Matsumoto has extra snap in his palms and extra of a submission menace on the bottom. Katona each strikes and grapples for factors, not finishes. Katona has been ready to make use of that gameplan to win lots of fights within the Octagon, however I believe Matsumoto is just too vibrant a prospect to be snuffed out by him right here.

Finest guess: Jean Matusmoto moneyline (-250)

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Joselyne Edwards (-250) vs. Tamires Vidal (+205)

Each these fighters have struggled to battle with a lot depth of their UFC careers to this point. Joselyne Edwards dropped a boring bout to Ailin Perez, regardless of them having a lot of dangerous blood and Edwards attempting to get away with a head butt. Tamires Vidal waved off her battle with Melissa Gatto after a punch hit her within the breast (see it right here).

I’m not anticipating battle right here, or a end.

Finest guess: Over 2.5 rounds (-360)

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Jessica Penne (+140) vs. Elise Reed (-170)

Jessica Penne felt like a can’t-miss prospect when she got here off Invicta and impressed in TUF earlier than incomes a title shot towards Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2015. After being brutalized by a traditional Joanna Violence efficiency, issues have simply not occurred for Penne. Within the 10 years since that battle she’s fought six instances. That’s principally all the way down to a nightmare with USADA. In 2021, she appeared again on observe, getting wins over Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz (see it right here). Nonetheless, since then she’s misplaced to each Emily Ducote and Tabatha Ricci (see it right here).

She’s 41 and that is her eighth battle since leaving TUF home. We could be seeing her combating out her contract right here.

Elise Reed is 3-4 in UFC and coming off a submission loss to Lupita Godinez. She has additionally been submitted by Loma Lookboonmee (Lookboonmee’s solely profession submission) and been TKO’d by Sam Hughes and Sijara Eubanks.

Penne has good grappling, so she may be capable to trigger the upset right here. She additionally has a four-inch attain benefit. The over (2.5 rounds) is the protected guess (-280), however I just like the supply of plus cash on Penne.

Finest guess: Jessica Penne cash line (+150)

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Melissa Martinez (-130) vs. Alice Ardelean (+110)

Alice Ardelean was signed as a brief discover alternative to face Shaunna Bannon at UFC 304, a battle she gained through break up resolution.

Melissa Martinez hasn’t fought since 2022 (when she beat Elise Reed). That’s her solely UFC look since transferring over from Combate (the place she was Strawweight champ). She’s a brief discover alternative for Rayanna Amanda on this bout.

Martinez has far more upside than the 32-year-old Ardelean. She must be adequate to win this battle, even with the two-year lay-off.

Finest guess: Melissa Martinez moneyline (-130)

Picture by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Austen Lane (+350) vs. Robelis Despaigne (-500)

I don’t Sean Shelby likes Austen Lane. Final day out her was served as much as devastating energy puncher Jhonata Diniz, which result in a second spherical KO (see it right here). Earlier than that he was TKO’d by Justin Tafa. Lane was additionally famously picked to provide Greg Hardy a KO win again on Contender Collection in 2018 (see it right here).

Robelis Despaigne, who represented Cuba in Taekwondo on the 2012 Olympics, has unimaginable energy in his palms, as he confirmed together with his 18-second destruction of Josh Parisian in his UFC debut (see it right here). That took him to 5-0 in MMA together with his different wins, together with a four-second knockout, a three-second knockout and a 12-second knockout. At UFC St. Louis, he was matched with Waldo Cortes-Acosta after which he preceded to stink up the joint.

Cortes-Acosta clowned him by touchdown huge photographs on the ft after which taking him down and laying on him for nonetheless lengthy he needed. This revealed that Despaigne had zero floor combating acumen and resulted in ire from Dana White, who known as the battle one of many worst he’d seen.

Lane has a observe report of letting harmful strikers tee off on him … he most likely does the identical factor right here.

Finest guess: Beneath 1.5 rounds (-280)

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC Vegas 99 Lengthy Pictures

Right here’s a few issues that look fascinating (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 99 card …

Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda to be gained by Break up or Majority Resolution – Sure (+650)

I believe this can be a shut battle and that that is very lengthy odds for a break up resolution. We had 4 splits final weekend within the APEX. These two might sprawl and brawl for quarter-hour and provides the judges a tough time checking out who gained all of the exchanges.

Charles Johnson to beat Sumudaerji through KO/TKO/DQ (+700)

I believe Charles Johnson is on the verge of a popping out social gathering right here. He’s been steadily bettering this yr and I believe he might have an enormous night time towards Sumudaerji. I believe he’ll harm Sumudaerji and set off the Tibetan’s all-or-nothing response. If Sumudaerji will get wild, looking for a end, Johnson might put him to sleep.

Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez – Level to be Deducted – Sure (+2000)

The referee group-think needs to be shifting in direction of being extra punitive, proper? This yr we’ve seen so many fouls go unchecked (and fights be altered due to them). We merely should be attending to a tipping level the place refs truly begin deducting factors for fence grabs and eye pokes. On this bout, perhaps we’ll see that come into have an effect on — maybe to punish Pereira for an unlawful backflip or perhaps strikes to the again of the pinnacle.

Received one thing higher than these? Effectively, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the whole UFC Vegas 99 battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, earlier than the primary card begin time at 7 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

To take a look at the newest and biggest UFC Vegas 99: “Pereira vs. Hernandez” information and notes remember to hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.