The Washington Capitals maintain profitable hockey video games. After ending final season with a minus-37 objective differential, they’re at plus-24 by simply 17 video games. Their 12-4-1 file has some folks asking in the event that they’re a real Stanley Cup contender or a group using a sizzling streak that may inevitably regress to the imply. Properly, it could be a mixture of each.
We’ll check out how and why the Capitals are taking part in so nicely proper now. Although they’re certain to chill off in some capability, it won’t be sensible to rely this group out. The unlikely breakout from a roster stuffed with unspectacular on-paper expertise could be an indication of issues to come back. Simply perhaps, they aren’t so unspectacular in any case.
Three Star Producers Emerge: Strome, McMichael, & Protas
After having one of many least efficient offenses within the NHL final season, the Capitals sprung into motion in the course of the summer time and added some weapons. However their huge additions aren’t the explanation they’ve risen to their mid-to-late 2010s period of dominance. It has truly been the gamers who have been already on the roster.
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For starters, let’s check out Dylan Strome. The third total decide of a stacked 2015 NHL Draft had a brief, underwhelming stint with the Arizona Coyotes, resulting in him being traded on the age of 21 to the Chicago Blackhawks. Whereas he established himself as a dependable scorer in his new dwelling to the tune of 0.68 factors per sport (P/G), the Blackhawks selected to let him check the open market when he was a restricted free agent in 2022. Embracing a full-on rebuild for prospect Connor Bedard, they parted methods with just about anybody who made them a greater hockey group. The Capitals swooped in.
Strome put up 65 factors with Washington in his 2022-23 marketing campaign, resulting in a five-year contract extension. Following that up with 67 factors and nonetheless being 26 years outdated, no much less, they discovered a pleasant piece for a nothing value. Nevertheless, these numbers (0.81 P/G) pale compared to what he’s doing now. Right now, he’s almost doubled that whole.
In 2024-25 so far, Strome has an unbelievable 21 assists and 26 factors by 17 video games (1.53 P/G). His 11 major helpers are tied for fifth within the NHL, solely behind stars Kirill Kaprizov, Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mitch Marner. We’ll get as to if or not Strome is a respectable number-one middle in a bit, however he’s taking part in prefer it proper now—and at a $5 million cap hit. He has made everybody round him higher.
Strome is hardly “outdated”, however he has not less than been a longtime full-time NHLer for an honest chunk of time. Connor McMichael, however, didn’t really make himself a lineup-lock till 2023-24. He had a modest 18 objectives and 33 factors (0.41 P/G) on middle-six ice time, so it definitely comes as a shock that he, by 17 video games, has 12 objectives and 19 factors (1.12 P/G). Nearly tripling his earlier manufacturing, the twenty fifth decide of the 2019 NHL Draft has been particularly deadly on the frenzy.
A possible path to stardom is considerably shocking for McMichael, seeing as he doesn’t comply with typical developments. After remaining kind of stagnant for the previous three seasons by way of scoring on the American Hockey League (AHL) and NHL ranges, he has been shot out of a cannon to tie Leon Draisaitl for the even-strength goal-scoring lead (11). At a cap hit of $2.1 million for 2 years, the Capitals discovered themselves a cut price.
Lastly, we now have Aliaksei Protas. The 23-year-old signed a five-year deal at a $3.375 million cap hit final January, so he’ll be on an reasonably priced deal in D.C. for fairly some time. Following a 29-point displaying final season (0.37 P/G), the large 6-foot-6 playmaker has seen a utilization increase in what’s seeking to be one more breakout marketing campaign for the Capitals. He has 17 factors in 17 contests (1.00 P/G) and is on tempo to surpass his 78-game level whole earlier than the 2025 calendar 12 months begins.
The Capitals’ Offense as a Complete Has Exploded
These three in-house breakouts have definitely contributed lots, however let’s have a look at the numbers as an entire. Simply how nicely is Washington’s offense taking part in?
Though they made the playoffs in 2023-24, they weren’t an ideal hockey group. The Capitals allowed 37 extra objectives than they scored, and it wasn’t due to their protection or goaltending. The offense wasn’t doing its half.
Final season, Washington was one of many worst groups at producing offense at even power. Because of this, they completed twenty seventh in objective share (45.6 %) at even power, with their file largely salvaged by tight, one-goal wins. Their first-round sweep by the fingers of the New York Rangers was removed from shocking. Now, they’re among the finest even-strength offenses in not simply scoring objectives, however producing probabilities.
| Stat (Even Power) | Capitals in 2023-24 | Capitals in 2024-25 | League Rank |
| Corsi For Per 60 (CF/60) | 54.18 | 59.48 | twenty eighth to nineteenth |
| Pictures For Per 60 (SF/60) | 25.17 | 28.56 | thirty second to sixteenth |
| Excessive-Hazard Probabilities For Per 60 (HDCF/60) | 10.62 | 12.93 | twenty third to 4th |
| Anticipated Targets For Per 60 (xGF/60) | 2.56 | 3.42 | twenty sixth to third |
| Targets For Per 60 (GF/60) | 2.36 | 4.31 | twenty eighth to 1st |
Ignoring the truth that the Capitals have the league’s highest capturing share (a mark too excessive to take care of), this group has nonetheless proven unfathomable progress. They’ve spent little or no time within the offensive zone (38.5 % to 43.7 % within the defensive zone, one of many worst differentials within the NHL), however the group has been so rush-dominant and defensively sound that it hasn’t mattered. Washington has seamlessly transitioned from protection to offense, creating high-danger probabilities and anticipated objectives on the fourth- and third-best charge within the league. They’re capturing the puck a bit extra, which is nice to see, however the high quality of these probabilities has skyrocketed.
The numbers are being restricted to even power right here as a result of, regardless of this being the number-one scoring offense within the NHL, it has a 15.4 % cash-in charge on energy performs. Sure, the group with the best power-play scorer in historical past (Alex Ovechkin, 315 objectives) can’t convert on the person benefit. The excellent news is that when the capturing share dries up, the ability play could begin clicking once more. Even when it doesn’t, the Capitals are working at an elite stage when no person is within the penalty field.
Wanting on the Sustainability of the Capitals’ Run
It wouldn’t be proper to speak in regards to the Capitals’ unimaginable run so far with out mentioning their PDO, which is the sum of capturing share and save share. Traditionally, the groups that see early-season cruising flip right into a collapse for the ages are taking part in method over their heads in PDO (from ‘NHL’s Largest Collapses Each Season Since 2009-10,’ The Hockey Writers – NHL Stuff, September 2024). Is Washington destined for regression?
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On tempo for 120 standings factors this season (no person reached that in 2023-24), there ought to be some kind of pushback as time strikes alongside. Ranked first in capturing share and eleventh in save share for a 1.046 PDO, it ought to be famous that the Vancouver Canucks led the league at 1.025 final season—it could not appear it, however that’s a notable distinction.
Over the previous 10 seasons (excluding the COVID-19-delayed 2020-21 marketing campaign), groups that end third or higher in even-strength xGF/60 by Nov. 17 are pretty profitable. Of these 30 golf equipment, 25 made the playoffs (83.3 %), and their cumulative common in factors by season’s finish was 102 per 82 contests.
As well as, from 2014-15 to 2023-24, the groups that completed prime 10 in factors share by the primary month of the season (a gaggle Washington is in) carried out at an identical charge. They made the playoffs 79 % of the time and completed with 100 factors on common per 82 video games (from ‘How Essential Is a Robust Begin within the NHL?,’ The Hockey Writers – NHL Stuff, October 2024). By all accounts, the Capitals are in a great place.
As for our three breakout performers, their on-ice capturing percentages (oiSH%) are pretty excessive. The statistic tracks a group’s capturing share whereas that participant is on the ice—something above 15 % is mainly unattainable over a full season. Strome and Protas each have on-ice capturing percentages at or above the 20 % threshold, so count on their level totals to say no as time goes on. McMichael is above common on this division, little question, however he’s exterior the ninetieth percentile for oiSH% amongst forwards with not less than 50 minutes of ice time.
Getting away from analytics however sticking with these three gamers, their scoring seemingly received’t vanish. Solely Mark Stone (53 factors in 56 video games) was unable to achieve the 60-point mark after hitting 17 factors by Nov. 17 of final season. Simply taking a look at Strome, it’s exhausting to dismiss his ridiculous stretch—solely two gamers (J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson) surpassed his 26-point whole at this level in 2023-24. Certain, his group could also be scoring on an unsustainable quantity of their pictures, however this can be a warning to the remainder of the league that he’s an 80-plus level participant to any extent further. Each McMichael and Protas won’t end with that many factors, however they undertaking to be two high quality contributors this season and maybe the longer term, too. They’re each 23 years outdated, in any case.
The Capitals are among the finest groups within the NHL proper now, and the numbers recommend they will nonetheless be in that dialog when the season ends. They could be outperforming their total outlook proper now, however Strome, McMichael, and Protas all appear to have taken that subsequent step. A brand new contender has emerged within the Jap Convention.
Superior stats courtesy of Pure Stat Trick
