The Tigers not too long ago tried to increase reigning AL Cy Younger award winner Tarik Skubal, in keeping with a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, however Petzold suggests the provide from Detroit was not aggressive and the edges in the end didn’t come near hammering out a deal. It’s actually comprehensible that Detroit would have curiosity in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re simply starting to enter their aggressive window and have simply two years of staff management over the southpaw remaining earlier than he can depart in free company. With that being stated, Skubal is a shopper of Scott Boras, who usually encourages his gamers to check free company to maximise worth, and the lefty actually has loads of leverage coming off a 2024 season that noticed him win the AL Triple Crown and change into the membership’s first Cy Younger award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That’s to not say an extension is essentially unimaginable, nonetheless. A handful of high-profile Boras shoppers, together with Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have beforehand signed extensions with their golf equipment previous to testing free company. And there’s actually precedent for Cy Younger-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as nicely. The Tigers famously signed future Corridor of Famer Justin Verlander to 2 extensions throughout his 13 years in Detroit, the primary being a five-year, $80MM contract that purchased out his last two arbitration years and three free agent years previous to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed previous to the 2013 season that coated the 2015-19 seasons and assured Verlander a further $140MM.
Whereas Verlander’s first contract stands as a reasonably easy comparability level to Skubal on condition that the lefty can be two years away from free company and Verlander had simply completed third in AL Cy Younger award voting previous to the deal being signed, that deal is a decade and a half outdated at this level and costs across the league have risen significantly within the years since then. On condition that, Verlander’s second extension could function a extra correct level of comparability when discussing the potential for one other Cy Younger winner extending his stick with the Tigers given the high-end offers gamers reminiscent of Gerrit Cole (9 years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the previous decade.
Maybe one of the best comparability for Skubal’s state of affairs may be present in right-hander Jacob deGrom. deGrom signed an extension with the Mets previous to the 2019 season that coated the 2020-23 seasons. The deal assured him $120.5MM in new cash and included a membership choice for 2024 that might have raised the entire assure to $153MM over 5 years. Extra importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the chance to choose out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a really related state of affairs to the one Skubal and the Tigers discover themselves in now; deGrom was simply two years from free company and had secured his first profession Cy Younger award on the heels of an otherworldly season that noticed him publish a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of labor.
That season was much more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom on the time had a a lot much less checkered damage historical past than Skubal presently does. Whereas these components could counsel that deGrom’s deal must be a goal for the lefty to shoot for, he has one main issue on his facet that might considerably enhance his incomes energy past even that of deGrom: age. Skubal simply turned 28 final week, however deGrom was almost three years older then Skubal throughout his Cy Younger-winning age-30 season again in 2018. In different phrases, Skubal is just not solely youthful now than deGrom was on the time of his extension, however he’ll really nonetheless be youthful than deGrom was on the time of the deal when he’s slated to achieve free company following the 2026 season.
Having the ability to market an age-30 season in free company is a big enhance to a participant’s general worth on the open market, significantly for pitchers who groups are sometimes hesitant to ensure prolonged offers for. Cole’s large nine-year cope with the Yankees got here previous to his age-29 season, suggesting {that a} $300MM payday could possibly be a stretch for Skubal, however Strasburg was a 12 months older than Skubal will probably be upon reaching free company when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a equally checkered damage historical past to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the many worst contracts in latest reminiscence as a consequence of subsequent damage woes, which might make golf equipment skeptical of replicating it, however it’s straightforward to think about Skubal touchdown a deal north of $200MM ought to he attain free company in the course of the 2026-27 offseason.
That’s a hefty price ticket for the Tigers to take care of, however it’s actually possible they might put a compelling provide on the desk. In any case, the membership has simply two gamers signed to assured contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith gained’t make greater than $5.3MM yearly till and except his membership choice for the 2030 season is picked up, whereas Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a membership that was in a position to afford hefty annual salaries to each Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade in the past, it needs to be pretty manageable to commit an AAV within the $25-30MM vary to Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM wage by way of arbitration this 12 months, and would presumably be in line for a wholesome increase subsequent winter as nicely. If the Tigers had been keen to ensure Skubal a mixed $25MM for his last two journeys by means of arbitration, then maybe a seven-year, $175MM extension might make sense for each side. Such a deal would assure Skubal a complete payday by means of his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM assure he might hope to land in free company, whereas permitting the Tigers to lock up their ace by means of his prime years. It’s additionally doable that Skubal might take a web page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some whole assure in an effort to get a second chunk on the apple within the type of an opt-out, maybe following his age-32 season in 2029.
