By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Who will win Saturday’s $600,000
Alabama (G1) at Saratoga?
Eight three-year-old fillies
have entered the 1 1/4-mile grime contest, however one notable identify is lacking from
the entries. Thorpedo Anna, the runaway division chief after profitable the
Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), and Teaching Membership American Oaks (G1), is
passing the Alabama in favor of a begin towards males in subsequent week’s Travers
(G1).
Thorpedo Anna would have been
an odds-on selection so as to add the Alabama to her embellished report. However her absence
would not essentially make the race inscrutable. On the contrary, if Thorpedo
Anna would have been an apparent win selection, is not Teaching Membership American Oaks
runner-up #7 Candied (7-5) a
completely logical various?
There’s loads to love about
Candied. She’s the one confirmed Grade 1 winner within the Alabama subject, having rallied
from midfield to win the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland final fall by one size.
She adopted up that effort with a sport third-place run within the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies (G1), wherein she completed solely three-quarters of a size
behind future Kentucky Oaks runner-up Simply F Y I.
Candied subsequently took
5 months off and ran a bit under type when returning within the Ashland (G1) at
Keeneland, ending fourth by 5 lengths. However she bounced again properly in her
second begin of the season, closing from a pair lengths behind a gradual tempo to
conquer older rivals Honor D Girl and Saddle Up Jessie within the Girl’s Secret S.
at Monmouth Park. Honor D Girl and Saddle Up Jessie flattered that type by
returning to run 1-2 within the Delaware H. (G2).
Successful the Girl’s Secret prompted
Candied to tackle a showdown with Thorpedo Anna within the 1 1/8-mile Teaching
Membership American Oaks at Saratoga. Whereas Candied proved to be no match for the
heavy favourite, she confirmed a bit extra tactical pace than typical and stayed on
effectively to complete second by 4 1/2 lengths. In flip, Candied pulled 4 lengths
away from #1 Intricate (6-1), winner
of the Golden Rod (G2) and runner-up within the Rachel Alexandra (G2).
Candied strikes me as a
filly who will not thoughts stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for coach Todd Pletcher,
who has gained the Alabama 4 occasions, together with two of the final three editions with
Malathaat (2021) and Nest (2022). I am optimistic that getting away from
Thorpedo Anna will open the door for Candied to safe her second Grade 1 win
in convincing style.
Graded stakes winners
Intricate, #2 Chatalas (8-1), and #3 Energy Squeeze (9-2) are different
logical contenders. Of the trio, I barely desire the possibilities of Intricate.
Except for a fifth-place end within the Honest Grounds Oaks (G2), Intricate hasn’t
run a nasty race since profitable her debut at Keeneland final fall, and it is value
noting she’s the one horse to have ever defeated Thorpedo Anna, doing so by 5
1/4 lengths within the Golden Rod final fall.
However to spherical out exacta tickets,
I desire a few up-and-comers.
The primary is #4 Simply Basking (5-1), who proved she
can deal with 1 1/4 miles when smashing a maiden particular weight in the course of the spring
meet at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths. She’s since confirmed her value towards
stakes competitors, launching a last-to-first rally to dominate the Iowa Oaks by
4 3/4 lengths. Each her sire (Arrogate) and dam sire (Blame) gained the Breeders’
Cup Traditional (G1) over 1 1/4 miles, so Simply Basking is bred to shine over basic
distances and ought to be gaining floor down the Alabama homestretch.
#6 Miss Justify (6-1),
a second Pletcher trainee, can be value a protracted look. She’s gone 2-for-2 since
stretching out from sprints to routes. First, she employed dueling ways to
win a one-mile $100,000 allowance optionally available claimer at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2
lengths. Then she rallied from midfield to take Saratoga’s one-mile Wilton S.
by one size. Stretching out one other quarter-mile in distance for the Alabama
is a query mark, however Miss Justify is steadily enhancing and has the tactical
pace to be an element from the outset. Do not rely her out of the combo.
Alternatives:
1st: Candied
2nd: Simply Basking
third: Miss Justify
Now it is your flip! Who do
you want within the Alabama?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (often known as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. A fantastic fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.
