Astros normal supervisor Dana Brown left the door open yesterday to buying and selling both outfielder Kyle Tucker or left-hander Framber Valdez this winter. At this time, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X hyperlink) studies that the Yankees and Cubs are two golf equipment serious about Tucker.
The information isn’t particularly shocking. Tucker is likely one of the greatest gamers within the league and it might truly be extra of a shock if any membership weren’t serious about him. He’s coming into his closing 12 months of membership management, which ought to eradicate groups absolutely in rebuild mode, however he ought to have broad curiosity other than that. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Tucker for a $15.8MM wage subsequent 12 months, a notable sum however nonetheless inexpensive for any staff and a cut price for a participant of Tucker’s expertise stage.
From 2021 to 2023, Tucker’s manufacturing was pretty constant and in addition trending upward. He hit 30 house runs within the first two of these seasons after which 29 within the third. His stroll and strikeout charges every made slight enhancements in that stretch. He drew free passes at a 9.3% clip in 2021, then 9.7% and 11.9% within the subsequent two seasons, whereas his strikeout charge went from 15.9% to fifteen.6% after which 13.9%. His stolen base complete went from 14 to 25 to 30.
In 2024, he missed vital time after fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his shin. That harm restricted his counting stats however he continued to enhance on a charge foundation. Although his strikeout charge ticked again as much as 15.9%, he drew walks in 16.5% of his plate appearances. Regardless of solely stepping into 78 video games, he launched one other 23 house runs. His wRC+ was between 130 and 146 over his earlier three seasons however jumped to 180 in 2024.
He’s additionally been graded as a robust defender and, as talked about, can steal just a few bases. FanGraphs graded him as price both 4.9 or 5.0 wins above alternative in three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and Tucker was price 4.2 fWAR in 2024 though he performed lower than half a season. That’s 19.1 fWAR over the previous 4 years, putting him in thirteenth amongst all place gamers for that span. Due to his shin harm, all 12 guys forward of him on that checklist performed in additional video games.
There are some tough parallels right here with the Juan Soto scenario from a 12 months in the past. The Padres had been prepared to make Soto’s closing 12 months of membership management out there on the commerce market so as to stroll a tightrope. They needed to proceed competing however had a decent funds and had a number of gamers that had been troublesome to commerce attributable to contractual causes. Transferring Soto freed up an enormous quantity of payroll area and in addition introduced again rapid assist in different areas, because the Friars had been in a position to get a bundle of gamers that included Michael King and Drew Thorpe, later flipping Thorpe to get Dylan Stop.
The Astros are in a considerably related spot now. Brown beforehand mentioned that the membership may need to get artistic with cash this offseason, though they nonetheless need to win subsequent 12 months. Gamers like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have massive contracts however are franchise cornerstones. Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly every have the best to veto any trades. Lance McCullers Jr. can’t be simply moved attributable to his well being standing.
They don’t actually have to contemplate a commerce however it appears they are going to choose up the cellphone and see if any membership blows them away with a Soto-like bundle. Tucker’s monitor file isn’t fairly pretty much as good as Soto’s however Soto was projected for a $33MM wage going into 2024, greater than double what Tucker is slated to earn subsequent 12 months.
It’s theoretically attainable that they will get a bundle of younger expertise they like whereas concurrently releasing up some payroll area to re-sign Alex Bregman, since Brown and proprietor Jim Crane have each marked that because the membership’s prime precedence. That would depart the Houston outfield consisting of Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubón, although it’s attainable they get some cheaper outfield assist again within the commerce.
The Yankees, after all, needed to re-sign Soto as a free agent however he’s now going to change into a Met. That leaves the Yanks with a giant gap of their outfield they usually should pivot to different prospects. The free agent market options guys like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández whereas the Yankees have been related to commerce candidate Cody Bellinger. Tucker could be a extra enticing possibility than any of these three in a vacuum however a deal coming collectively would naturally rely on what it might take for the Astros to let him go.
The Yankees nonetheless have Aaron Choose as their outfield anchor and may transfer him again to proper subject for the post-Soto period, with Jasson DomĂnguez and Trent Grisham choices for heart. Tucker is robust in proper subject, so maybe the Yanks would contemplate transferring him to left. Because of the quick porch in proper, there’s extra grass to cowl in left subject, making protection over there extra of a priority.
There shouldn’t be any monetary subject, because the Yankees simply reportedly make Soto a suggestion of $760MM over 16 years, a mean annual worth of $47.5MM. They are going to now be trying to unfold that form of cash round to different gamers and Tucker is just projected to get a few third of that.
For the Cubs, they have already got a crowded outfield image however clearly have curiosity in shaking it up a bit. Bellinger has been in lots of rumors this winter and Seiya Suzuki’s identify has come up as nicely. Buying and selling both is difficult, in Bellinger’s case attributable to his upcoming out-out whereas Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. These two undertaking to be in an outfield group that additionally contains Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, in addition to children like Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. Happ additionally has a no-trade clause whereas the Cubs most likely need to grasp onto the youthful guys. Every of Happ, Bellinger and Suzuki are slated free of charge company after 2026, with Bellinger maybe departing a 12 months sooner than that.
As talked about, nearly each contender must be calling the Astros to get a way of the asking value. There are not any ensures that he may be obtained however even the chance that he’s out there makes him one of the vital fascinating names to observe within the coming weeks.
